Saturday and Sunday will be filled with breezy winds and partly cloudy skies. Rain chances increase Sunday afternoon. A high rip current risk remains for the weekend. There will be rough surf at the beaches with coastal gusts at 30 to 40 miles per hour. Small boats are advised to stay out of the ocean until conditions improve. The high rip current risk is in effect through Monday evening for our entire coast.
Saturday evening temperatures will drop into the mid to low 60s with breezy winds through midnight and partly cloudy skies. Rain is not in the forecast.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have determined that Hurricane Melissa strengthening as expected and will lead to life threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides for portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
According to the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A slow westward motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals are still uncertain.
STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet aboveground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba early next week.
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office.