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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 31W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W and S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W south of 19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern half of the wave S of 10N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W, south of 19N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 11N to 20N between 78W and 86W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N21W to 08N30W, from 05N32W to 07N38W, from 07N39W to 08N47W, and from 08N49W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the ITCZ and W of 25W.

Gulf Of America

1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 26N88W. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Yucatan Channel. Another trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle to south of Apalachicola, Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are active near these troughs across the eastern Gulf and over the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NW winds are possible off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate breezes are evident elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging is forecast to prevail across the basin through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for locally fresh to strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Locally moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf while mainly slight seas are forecast basin-wide.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the northwest Caribbean between Honduras and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through the weekend. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from tonight through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will stay in place through the forecast period, developing a center of high pressure E of the Bahamas by Fri. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds, with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen