For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 1 month, 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight and again Thu night.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. Gale conditions are forecast over the west-central Gulf, including the Tampico area Thu and Thu night. Gale force winds are also expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region Thu night and Fri. Building seas of 10-13 ft are expected with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both Gale Warnings.
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 04N between 22W and 30W, and from the equator to 06N between 40W and 51W.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the Special Features section above for more information.
A surface ridge dominates the Gulf region and extends from a 1025 mb high pressure located over N Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh southerly return flow is noted over the western Gulf with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere, including the Yucatan Channel. Cold air stratocumulus are still noted over the western Gulf.
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters today. Fresh southerly return flow across the western Gulf will persist today ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. Gale conditions are forecast over the west-central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. Then, the front is forecast to move slowly on Fri, and a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary over the NE Gulf on Sat. The low is forecast to move NE into the W Atlantic dragging the cold front across the SE Gulf by Sat night.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details.
The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds across the Windward passage and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 8-11 ft within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, and 6-8 ft over the reminder of the south-central Caribbean, including the Caribbean waters of eastern Panama. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean, with mainly seas of 3-5 ft in the NW part of the basin.
A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms crosses the Windward passage and extends across northern Jamaica in association with the remnants of a frontal boundary. NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba are transporting some low level clouds with possible showers across eastern Cuba. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight and Thu night. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will increase today and persist through Fri, covering mainly the waters between 70W and 80W. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
A cold front extends from 31N53W to 20N70W. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary, with an area of showers and thunderstorms just offshore the northern coast of Haiti. Winds continue to diminish on either side of the front. Currently, moderate to fresh winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 29N W of front to near 68W, and N of 20N E of front to about 52W. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed ahead of the front over the central Atlantic near 25N50W. A surface trough extends from a 1005 mb low pressure located S of the Azores near 34N26W to 30N24W to 25N30W to 25N44W. Fresh to strong NW winds are N of 28N and W of the trough with seas of 10 to 13 ft. Fresh to locally strong S winds are affecting the Madeira and the Canary Islands.
Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. An area of fresh to locally strong winds is noted from 06N-10N between 40W-50W. Elsewhere S of 20N moderate to fresh trades prevail.
For the forecast W of 65W, large seas in the wake of the above mentioned cold front will continue to affect the NE waters today while subsiding. The front will begin to lift N today while dissipating. High pressure will be in control of the weather pattern across the area through Thu while moving northeastward. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. The front will likely reach from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida by Sat morning.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr
