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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate convection is observed from 04N to 8N and between 32W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 16.5N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 15N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No convection is evident along the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 12N between 80W and 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18.5N16W and extends southwestward to 08N30W then to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 11N between 15W and 25W.

Gulf Of America

Numerous thunderstorms remain active from south of Mobile Bay, Alabama to off Tampa Bay, Florida. This activity is associated with divergent flow aloft between an upper low over the western Atlantic off the Georgia coast, and an upper anti-cyclone over the central Texas coast. At the surface, 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the southeastern Gulf off Port Charlotte, Florida. This is supporting gentle breezes and slight seas across the eastern Gulf, and moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the western Gulf. The convergence of these SE winds are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the far western Gulf off the coast of South Texas and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the central Gulf will persist through Wed, before a weak cold front sinks slowly southward across north Florida and into the adjacent NE Gulf waters Thu night through Fri. Thunderstorms are expected to remain active along and south of this front through Thu. The front is forecast to stall then meander across the eastern Gulf through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure may form along this decaying boundary over the eastern Gulf this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed strong to near- gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean into southwest Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 14 ft in this area. Moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft are noted elsewhere. These winds are due to a tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia. The trade wind convergence is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms off Costa Rica. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active over the far northwest Caribbean just south of the Yucatan Channel associated with divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough extending from Florida to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Wed, then diminish N of 15N through Fri as the high shifts off to the NE. Winds and seas will diminish further over the upcoming weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper trough is anchored over the western Atlantic off the coast of Georgia. Associated divergence aloft is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from the northern Bahamas to 30N72W. A few thunderstorms are active near 19N52W associated with another upper low in the vicinity. At the surface, the subtropical ridge dominates the region north of 20N across the Atlantic, anchored by 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W. This is supporting gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft north of 20N, and moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft south of 20N.

For the west of 55W, the Bermuda High is expected to maintain a ridge W to E along about 30N through Wed, then begin to drift eastward and weaken modestly through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 24N through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoon into the overnight hours N of Hispaniola until the end of the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. Coast and into the NW zones early Fri, then stall there through Sun. Low pressure may form along the front during this time.

Posted 1 hour, 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen