Tracking the tropics

Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N64W to a 1012 mb low near 28N70W. A cold front extends from this low to the central Bahamas to Belize adjacent waters. The cold front will move SE through Mon, while the low slides NE along the front and deepens across the western Atlantic through tonight. High pressure NW of the region will act to increase northerly winds behind the front. Gale force winds are expected to develop within 210 nm SW quadrant of the low tonight. Gale conditions will lift N of the area by Mon morning.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold front moving SE across the western Atlantic the next few days will increase the pressure gradient across the south central Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon night, and then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds.

For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

A cold front extending from central Cuba SW to Belize adjacent waters will reach Hispaniola Mon night and stall over the island through Tue evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast with the potential for flooding.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 09N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W. There is no significant convection at this time.

Gulf Of Mexico

Strong high pressure building along the eastern United States extending a ridge SW into the gulf is currently supporting NE moderate to fresh winds over the eastern half of the basin and gentle to moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft E of 90W, the highest seas being in the SE portion of the gulf where strong NE winds are developing. In the western half of the basin, seas range between 3 to 6 ft. Strong dry air subsidence continue to support mainly clear skies, except over the far western gulf W of 94W where shallow moisture and diffluent flow at the lower levels support a line of showers along the coast and adjacent waters of Mexico.

Strong winds developing this evening in the SE basin will affect the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan channel through early next weekend. Otherwise, by Thu, SE return flow will develop across the northern and western Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends across central Cuba SW to Belize adjacent waters. There is no convection associated with this front at the time. Moderate to fresh winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong N to NE winds tonight as the front continue to move SE into Mon evening. The front is forecast to stall from Dominican Republic to Honduras Mon night through Tue evening, potentially bringing heavy rain and flooding to Hispaniola.

Mainly moderate to fresh winds are occurring over the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the Colombia coast. These conditions will prevail through Thu, with fresh to locally strong winds expanding in areal coverage Tue and Wed. With the passage of the front and strong high pressure building behind it, strong to near gale force winds will affect the Windard Passage and Jamaica adjacent waters Mon through Wed. Otherwise, winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night.

Of note, A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 28N74W. A cold front extends from the low across the central Bahamas and into central Cuba. To the NE of this low, a stationary front stretches to 30N65W. Strong N wind behind the front will prevail through Mon night as the low moves NE and out of the area. Gales will develop on the west side of the low this evening and continue into Mon. By Tue, the front will stall from 22N65W to the Dominican Republic. Strong high pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE winds south of 27N into Wed night.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 55W. Seas are 7 to 13 ft with a component of longer period NW swell.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature