Three key takeaways from Tropical Storm Melissa:
- Melissa is moving slowly northward and will turn westward, bringing it close to Jamaica and southwestern Haiti.
- The storm is forecast to rapidly intensify this weekend, becoming a major hurricane by Sunday.
- Heavy rainfall threatens southern Haiti, eastern Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic with life-threatening flooding and landslides.
At the 11 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center forecast has Melissa moving north at 2 mph. The center of the storm is located approximately 180 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 245 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti.
Melissa is expected to continue moving north or north-northeast over the next day, then make a sharp turn westward over the weekend through Monday. This track will bring Melissa closer to Jamaica and southwestern Haiti over the weekend.
Melissa’s maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 140 miles to the east of the center.
Gradual strengthening is expected throughout the day and into the weekend. Melissa is expected to reach hurricane strength by Saturday and become a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 millibars.
Melissa is forecast to bring significant rainfall, with 10-20 inches in portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic.
Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti.