JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Storm Melissa continued to crawl through the Caribbean on Wednesday. The system’s motion will remain very slow through next week.
As of the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the center of Melissa was located about 330 miles southwest of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, moving west at 2 mph.
A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn by this weekend.
On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.
Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the island of Jamaica
Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. As the system remains nearly-stationary over very warm water, strengthening is expected. In fact, Melissa could become a major hurricane by early next week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
This system will impact Hispaniola and Jamaica through this weekend. There’s still considerable uncertainty as to where this system will go as we head into next week.
The majority of models keep the system over the warm ocean water away from land. There’s still differences in the speed and how far west the system will track. In fact, the models below show the difference in the eventual track.
The GFS model and the European model (EURO) show two very different outcomes for this system.
The GFS model (white lines) shows a well-defined system near Hispaniola early next week.
The European model (EURO) in yellow shows a well-defined system well to the west of Hispaniola. The question will be how upper-level disturbances impact the track of the eventual system.
Regardless, islands in the Caribbean need to monitor this system very closely. Where it goes from there is still questionable. The strength and speed of certain upper-level disturbances (fronts and areas of low pressure) could help to steer the system away from our state. Right now, a track away from Florida appears likely as a stronger front is forecast to keep the system to our east.
Most models strengthen Melissa into a hurricane by the end of the week, and a major hurricane is not out of the question early next week (category 3 or higher).