JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A tropical wave in the Caribbean developed Tuesday morning into Tropical Storm Melissa.
As of the 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the center of the newly formed Melissa was located about 300 miles south of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti.
Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph and is expected to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and north over the next few days.
On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica later this week.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island.
Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
This system will likely impact the ABC islands later this week. There’s still considerable uncertainty as to where this system will go this weekend and beyond.
While the majority of models turn the system into Hispaniola, a few keep the system slow and weaker. This would allow the system to track more to the west and closer to Cuba. In fact, the models below show the difference in the eventual track.
The GFS model and the European model (EURO) show two very different outcomes for this system.
The GFS model (white lines) shows a well-defined system near Hispaniola.
The European model (EURO) in yellow shows a weaker system well to the west of Hispaniola. The question will be how upper-level disturbances impact the track of the eventual system.
Regardless, islands in the Caribbean need to monitor this system very closely. Where it goes from there is still questionable. The system will likely move into the open waters of the Atlantic later this weekend into next week, but the strength and speed of certain upper level disturbances (fronts and areas of low pressure) could help to steer the system away from our state. Right now, a track away from Florida appears likely as a stronger front is forecast to keep the system to our east.
Most models keep this system as a Tropical Storm by the end of the week, but a hurricane is not out of the question into the upcoming weekend. The ocean water is very warm in this area, which could help the system to strengthen into a hurricane.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later on Tuesday.