There is a tropical wave near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea, identified as “AL98″
According to the National Hurricane Center, recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the tropical wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a closed circulation.
Long terms models do not agree of the development of this system. The EURO shows it remains disorganized storms, while the GFS shows the system developing into a tropical storm and then category one hurricane, moving north through the Bahamas and then shifting east. It is entirely too soon to determine what it will become. So far, the system is NOT a threat to the Atlantic Coast.
However both radar and satellite images indicate the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show signs of organization.
The tropical wave is moving quickly toward the west at 20 to 25 miles per hour. The pace could work against the system for development. However, environment conditions long term appear to support more organization of the system into becoming a tropical depression by mid week.
It is expected to slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by mid-week.
A tropical depression is expected to form in the central Caribbean Sea.
While developing the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through Monday morning.
Hurricane Season ends November 30th.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.