How do you feel about the issues facing Florida, Florida’s legislative leaders, and the candidates shaping the field in the upcoming gubernatorial race to replace Gov. Ron DeSantis?
The UNF Public Opinion Research Lab has the pulse of voters and recently released its latest public opinion poll, which specifically focused on Republican voters in Florida.
Floridians go to the polls to elect a new governor on Nov. 3, 2026. Incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited and can’t run for a third term in a row.
Florida, which is considered to be a moderately red to strongly red state, hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1994, nor a Democrat for president since 2012.
For perspective, DeSantis was re-elected by a 19.4% margin. That’s a considerable improvement from the blue wave in 2018, when he won by a very slim 0.4% victory.
Looking ahead to 2026, the two Republican frontrunners in the GOP gubernatorial contest are Florida first lady Casey DeSantis and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
Despite having yet to declare her candidacy, Casey DeSantis held a narrow lead over Donalds, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, in the UNF poll.
Whether Casey DeSantis will run remains a key question in the midterm elections. So far, all she says when asked if she will run is, “We’ll see.”
In an interview with Newsweek magazine, the chief strategist for the Donalds campaign said Donalds will win “no matter the field.” That’s a reference to the poll having been taken among GOP voters.
Thirty-two percent of respondents said they would vote for Casey DeSantis if she chooses to run. Donalds, who has declared he is running, closely followed DeSantis with support from 29% of Republicans.
Others expected in the race are former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson. They all polled in single digits.
Of those polled, 18% said they were undecided.
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What’s interesting here is that in earlier polling, Casey DeSantis was a clear favorite, but her support has all but disappeared and is inside the margin of error for the poll, which is plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
Political analysts say the shift might be a result of Donalds’ staunch support from Trump. Another factor might be the Hope Florida Foundation scandal.
Casey DeSantis received extensive media coverage concerning Hope Florida, an initiative she spearheaded that is designed to help Floridians move off government assistance by connecting them to a clearinghouse of services offered by nonprofits and faith-based communities.
The foundation has been under scrutiny for months following reports that it gave $10 million from a Medicaid settlement with a giant managed care plan to two nonprofits.
The nonprofits then directed the taxpayer dollars to a political committee, chaired by the governor’s then-chief of staff, to campaign against a proposed constitutional amendment that would have legalized recreational marijuana.
Did that influence voter opinion? According to the UNF survey, 63% of GOP respondents said that they had never heard of the Hope Florida Foundation, with 23% indicating a favorable opinion, and just 6% unfavorable.
That lack of knowledge might play in the first lady’s favor now. But when the campaign begins in earnest and Republican voters learn more, there are certain to be questions as to whether she will lose more support.
And we’re getting an idea of what issues concern Floridians the most. The UNF poll shows that Florida Republicans generally support eliminating property taxes for homeowners (63%) and oppose a potential 2026 ballot measure legalizing recreational cannabis (58% oppose, with only 40% supporting).
The researchers behind the UNF Public Opinion Poll, Michael Binder and Sean Freeder, will join me on this week’s Politics & Power to discuss these issues, as well as opinions concerning immigration, detention centers like “Alligator Alcatraz,” and the performance of Florida lawmakers.
Watch at 7 p.m. or 9 p.m. Tuesday on News4JAX+ or catch it any time on demand on News4JAX+, News4JAX.com or our YouTube channel.