The war between Ukraine and Russia is at a critical crossroads. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are pushing to end the war.
But the reality is that within that push lies a dangerous fault line that opens further as Trump rushes to end the war.
Issues concerning both Ukrainian and European security mean a quick fix might not be possible. Not helping matters, officials from Kyiv and Europe are excluded from the peace talks.
Trump is gambling here. He wants to move quickly, but the question is, does he really care about some crucial matters, including Ukraine’s ability to survive?
Europe has concerns about its borders and security, and there are questions about rewarding Putin’s illegal invasion in 2022.
The two have talked at great length on the phone. Trump said they discussed “getting a ceasefire in the not-too-distant future.”
“I think we’re on the way to getting peace. I think President Putin wants peace, President Zelensky wants peace, and I want peace. I just want to see people stop getting killed,” Trump said.
While that conversation might have gone the way the president described, it sent the world into a tailspin.
John Bolton, the man who served as National Security Advisor during Trump’s first administration, said Trump “effectively surrendered” to Putin in the lead-up to negotiations over the fate of Ukraine.
It left NATO ministers scrambling to adjust to what they call an increasingly isolationist American position.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he does not “see a ready U.S. plan” to end the war. And he warns Putin will attack NATO next year.
Russia occupies around a fifth of Ukraine and has demanded Kyiv cede more territory and be rendered permanently neutral under any peace deal.
Ukraine demands Russia withdraw from captured territory and says it must receive NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees to prevent Moscow from attacking again.
But Zelensky’s wish list for a peace agreement was essentially discarded.
Ukraine will not be part of NATO. Ukraine will never return to its 2014 borders. Any peacekeeping forces between Russia and Ukraine will not be American, but European or non-European. Europe must look after itself.
European powers, including Britain, France and Germany, say they must be part of any negotiations underscoring that only a fair accord with security guarantees would ensure lasting peace.
But the fact is Europe has not been featured prominently in the Trump administration’s efforts and indications are it will face an uphill battle in convincing the Trump team its involvement is positive.
Analysts say Trump may be right in pushing for U.S. leadership in negotiations, but Washington might have to be convinced that it also plays a role when it comes to Ukraine’s security.
Essentially Europe has to convince the Trump administration that being a partner will strengthen its hand with Putin.
That might not be an easy task.
Matthew Savill, director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank, succinctly put it this way: “The US is quite happy to march to its own beat and leave Europe and Ukraine to pick up the pieces.”
There are several things to reconcile here.
Transatlantic relations are undergoing a major transformation. Europe’s “American century” is over.
And then there’s this irony. Trump said he could fix the war in Ukraine in 24 hours after coming to power — boastful at best. He said the war would never have started had he been in the White House in 2022 — a dig at former President Joe Biden.
Is bringing about peace between Ukraine and Russia his priority? The reality is, probably not.
Trump’s priorities are twofold. Knowing that in Trump’s world, everything has its price, he doesn’t really care who controls Ukraine. He wants access to the rare earth minerals that are beneath that blood-soaked soil. His rhetoric bears that out.
Trump says “he wants to work together, very closely” with Putin to end the war. Does he really?
In many ways, Putin has already gotten what he wants. The chance to negotiate directly with the United States on Ukraine, possibly over the heads of Kyiv and Europe.
You must ask, does that bring Putin out of the cold and place him at the top of international politics?
One Russian newspaper put it this way: “Russia is ready for talks. But on its terms. If you drop the diplomatic language, essentially that is called an ultimatum.”
Stuart Kaufman, an expert on international relations and the war between Ukraine and Russia, joined me for this week’s episode of Politics & Power.
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