The world is watching to see if the Middle East is on the brink of monumental change precipitated by the ouster of Syria’s Bashar Assad.
Rebels forced Assad to flee and seek asylum in Moscow, marking a major turning point in the nation’s 14-year civil war and more than 50 years of his family’s brutal rule.
There are those who believe this will engender a major ripple effect. In fact, one GOP lawmaker thinks those ripple effects will be as profound as what was seen with the “fall of the Berlin Wall.”
“The ripple effect of this is just going to be remarkable. It’s truly equivalent to the Berlin Wall, which led to a ripple effect of dozens of countries becoming free after 50 years of occupation and totalitarian control,” Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina said.
A little background here. Assad’s fall wipes out one of the main bastions from which Iran and Russia wielded power across the region. Turkey, long aligned with Assad’s foes, emerges strengthened. In the meantime, Israel says the outcome is the result of its blows to Assad’s Iranian-backed allies.
There are several challenges now for the Arab world. It must reintegrate one of the Middle East’s central states and contain the militant Sunni Muslim group that underpinned the anti-Assad revolt.
The challenge becomes more difficult because that revolt also threatens to metastasize into the horrific sectarian violence that exists in the Islamic State. So, keeping ISIS at bay is paramount.
The only thing now that is certain is that a new page is being written in this chapter on Syrian and Middle Eastern history. The hope is that new foundations will be built without tyranny.
President Joe Biden said: The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice. It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for the proud country. It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty.
There are a myriad of questions that need to be asked. Those questions need to be framed in the context of the way we think of Syria, as a piece of the puzzle as part of the Iranian axis. For Israel, the fall of Assad must be seen in the context of Hezbollah.
And then there’s Russia. One must ask what does the United States really want to accomplish? We can’t forget there is a larger conflict to consider. Syria was a client state. There are implications for Russian involvement with Iran on the Middle Eastern front.
Assad’s fall is a huge blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He suffered more than just the major loss of a client state in Syria. Putin wanted to be a power broker in the Middle East. Assad’s ouster showcases the fragility of his own rule.
That begs the question: How does this factor into the bigger picture on another war front: Ukraine? Especially with a new U.S. administration about to come to power and the dynamics of U.S. attitudes about to change.
What does the U.S. want and expect on both of those volatile fronts: Ukraine and the Middle East?
Political analyst Daniel Cronrath and I discuss the potential for change in the Middle East and beyond on this week’s episode of Politics & Power. Watch any time on demand on News4JAX.com, News4JAX+ or our YouTube channel.