Locally, we’re in for a hot day, with highs above average in the 90s and feels like temperatures in the 100s. Sunny skies with a 20% chance of showers.
We’re also tracking some systems in the Atlantic.
The first system is just off or east of the Cabo Verde Islands—and is more disorganized. Conditions for development are only marginal right now, so its intensification would be slower. Current forecasts put its chances of formation at low to medium.
If it does manage to develop, it would likely move westward through the tropical Atlantic. However, it faces challenges: dry air, wind shear, and competition with other systems could hinder its strengthening. It may stay weak or remain a tropical wave for some time. In the event it does become a tropical cyclone, its threats would mostly remain over open ocean or toward the easternmost islands, unless its path shifts more westward later.
What to watch
- Steering currents: The path each system takes will depend heavily on mid‑level ridges or troughs. A mid-latitude trough could pull a system northward, while a strong ridge could force it westward.
- Environmental factors: Dry air, Saharan dust, vertical wind shear, and ocean heat content all play critical roles. Even if a system starts to organize, adverse conditions can disrupt it.
- Interaction: If both systems strengthen, there’s a potential for them to interfere with each other (by altering local wind fields or creating competing outflow).
- Timeframe: The first, more established system has a relatively short horizon to intensify further; the second has more time but also more headwinds.
This next system—sitting between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands—is showing signs of gradual organization. Forecasters are assigning it high odds (on the order of 90 %) to develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next few days.
If development proceeds, its most likely track is toward the northwest or north of the Lesser Antilles. Because this system is farther east and already over open water, it’s less likely (at least initially) to pose a direct threat to the U.S. mainland. Instead, it could strengthen over the warm Atlantic and either curve out to sea or pass near island chains (depending on steering currents). If it intensifies, it’ll bring stronger winds, heavier rains, and higher seas to vessels in its path.