A tropical wave rolling off the coast of Africa is catching my attention this week.
While the disturbance is still poorly organized, it has the ingredients to slowly become better defined.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a low chance of development over the next 48 hours, but by the 5- to 7-day window, odds climb to around 40% as it moves west across warm Atlantic waters.
Right now, the system’s biggest hurdle is the hostile environment surrounding it — pockets of dry, dusty Saharan air and moderate wind shear that are keeping thunderstorms from consolidating.
If the wave can dodge the dry air and find a more moist, calm pocket of atmosphere, it could gradually spin up into a tropical depression.
Computer models are split, with some keeping it weak and others hinting at slow development as it approaches the central Atlantic by mid-week.
For now, there are no threats to land, but this is the kind of system we monitor closely this time of year. The ingredients are there — warm sea surface temperatures, a fairly steady steering current, and a long track across the Atlantic.
While it’s too soon to say whether this wave ever reaches the Caribbean or becomes a named storm, it’s a reminder that we’re still in the heart of hurricane season and conditions can change quickly.
It only takes one storm.