Model confusion continues with the potential for Invest 91. Chances of development are down as of 2:00 p.m.
The model confusion continues. Early this morning, three models had Invest 91 becoming Hurricane Gabrielle and one model did not develop the system at all. As of the latest update, more models are showing a much weaker tropical wave.
The overall path of the low-pressure area remains the same, with the wave expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday of next week.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is limited and disorganized. The dry upper-level winds are likely to limit development over the next couple of days. However, a tropical depression could still form early next week as the system moves westward at around 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week and interests there should monitor its progress.
The formation chance through 48 hours is down to 40 percent and the formation chance through 7 days is down to 70 percent.