A broad area of low pressure has coalesced in the eastern tropical Atlantic, linked to a tropical wave moving westward at about 5–10 mph.
This disturbance is churning out scattered but fairly concentrated showers and thunderstorms, particularly north of its center. Environmental conditions—warm waters, moist air, and low wind shear—are ripe for tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center pegs the chances of this system developing into a tropical depression at around 60% within 48 hours, rising sharply to 90% over the next seven days. If formation occurs, it would be designated Tropical Depression Seven, and once it attains tropical storm strength, it would be named Gabrielle.
Forecast models are still disagreeing on Gabrielle’s future path. Some keep it out to sea, while others suggest a potential northward turn. However, there’s enough model spread and uncertainty that no clear land threat is yet being pinned on U.S. or Caribbean coasts. That said, some guidance does hint at a possible approach toward the Lesser Antilles by mid- to late-week next week.