Winds will continue from the north and northeast throughout the weekend with rain accumulation focused along Interstate 10 and the coast. With the stationary front passing through our area Saturday afternoon and into Central Florida, I expect rain chances and accumulation to be lower than initially expected once the front that has passed. It appears to be moving south of us this afternoon. Storms are likely from the low pressure east of us, steering rain along the coast.
Saturday rain accumulation through midnight:
JACKSONVILLE 0.25 inches
BRUNSWICK 0.50 inches
SAINT AUGUSTINE 0.25 inches
LAKE CITY 0.15 inches
FLAGLER BEACH 0.30 inches
GAINESVILLE 0.03 inches
SATURDAY EVENING FORECAST
Temperatures will drop into the low 70s by midnight with a light north wind in NE Florida. A breezy wind near Southeast Georgia will end after sunset. Rain chances drop to 20 to 10 percent after sunset. Cloudy skies and high humidity is expected through midnight.
There are two low pressure systems and a stationary front near the peninsula. One low pressure system is near the Gulf and the other is in the Atlantic. A stationary front has been moving north to south across the state of Florida. The stationary front is now moving south of Alachua, Putnam and St Johns counties (as of 7:30 PM). Therefore rain accumulation will be more concentrated in Central Florida. The low pressure system in the Gulf is moving east and bringing storms into the panhandle and along the I-10 and I-75 corridor. This could lead to storms along I-10 near Columbia county and east. I don’t believe it would lead to a high rain accumulation. The low pressure system in the Atlantic is moving just east enough to only impact the coastal counties of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. However, I still expect low rain accumulation between now and midnight. This is why I believe Northeast Florida is less likely to get the storms originally forecasted.
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RAIN
In the early morning hours of Sunday, isolated cells of rain can move in from the Northeast, along the coast of between the Florida-Georgia border, and the Duval and Saint Johns counties border. This cell will grow overnight into rain and storms, beginning around 2 am through 8 am. It will be isolated but impactful for the small area it effects.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
A tropical wave is expected to move west off the coast of Africa in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system
Formation chance through 48 hours is 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days is 30 percent.