There are 2 trailing tropical waves behind Hurricane Erin, and 1 will likely develop this weekend

The blue clouds are bursts of thunderstorms around a low pressure DISTURBANCE INVEST 99. The tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, headed to the Caribbean Sea.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves across the Atlantic, each with the potential to develop into tropical cyclones in the coming days.

Invest 90L is in red, and the orange is Invest 99L.

System East of the Leeward Islands (AL90)

The next system to potentially become a tropical storm is a couple of hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The good news is that it is not expected to reach land and follow an open ocean track like Hurricane Erin.

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Right now, it is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms, tied to a tropical wave.

Conditions in the atmosphere appear favorable for development, and it could become at least a tropical depression by this weekend. The system is expected to track northwest and then north, passing between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. It is not expected to be as strong as Erin or to impact land.

Intensity forecast for Invest 90L shows the majority of models develop to a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. The HMON is the highest at Cat 3 strength, but is also less reliable on intensity predictions.

System in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99)

GFS Ensemble for timeline of the tropical waves location and the change in forecast model runs since August 21.

Low in latitude and farther east, another tropical wave sits about 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity remains fairly organized, but they are on the western side of a large circulation center. Recent satellite wind data suggest the disturbance has a broad closed circulation with 15 to 20 kt winds.

While the system will encounter less favorable conditions on Saturday, it could find a more supportive environment later this weekend into early next week.

Moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, it is expected to approach the central Atlantic and possibly near the Lesser Antilles next week. This system currently carries a medium chance of tropical development.

Forecast models are predicting less intensity, keeping it below hurricane strength.


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