JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – After Hurricane Erin buzzes by the Florida coast on Wednesday, another system may take its place soon.
Out in the heart of the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave is stirring near the Leeward Islands.
This system is the next in line to organize into a tropical storm, possibly, but that shouldn’t happen until the weekend.
For now, it’s nothing more than a sprawling cluster of showers and thunderstorms—messy and unorganized—but the environment ahead looks increasingly favorable for gradual development.
If it does strengthen, the system is expected to trace a path similar to that of Hurricane Erin, moving west to west-northwest at about 20 mph. By Friday, it should be approaching the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. The odds of something spinning up remain low in the near term at just 10% over the next two days—but the seven-day outlook paints a different picture, giving it a 60% chance of development.
Meanwhile, farther east near Africa, another tropical wave—designated Invest 99—simmers a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Unlike its counterpart, this disturbance already has a more concentrated pocket of thunderstorms.
The atmosphere here looks supportive of additional development through the next couple of days as it drifts westward at around 15 mph. But longer-range models show less enthusiasm, hinting that conditions will become hostile later this week.
That’s why Invest 99 is only being given a 30% shot at development, both in the short term and through the full seven-day window.