JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The waves on Sunday and Monday are nothing like what’s ahead.
The past couple of days’ surf originated from a low off the Carolinas while we wait for the main swell from Hurricane Erin.
The first signs of Hurricane Erin’s swell will arrive Tuesday morning with long set waits in small waist-high waves that build through the day.
By Wednesday, Erin will be positioned east of Jacksonville, pushing surf to a peak of 9–10 feet around midday. The swell direction will start nearly due east before shifting ENE on Thursday. With long periods running 15-16 seconds, expect well-overhead sets—but also plenty of closeouts at many breaks.
On Wednesday, steady northeast winds (12–15 mph with gusts up to 18–20 knots) will keep conditions choppy. Even normally reliable spots like North Jetty that shape up the closeouts may struggle with the NE breeze.
That said, Thursday could be the better play. While wave heights won’t drop much, lighter offshore NW winds in the morning should clean things up and offer more makeable lines.
As Erin lifts away, the backside northeast fetch will keep fun-sized surf in the water through Friday, with waist- to chest-high leftovers carrying into the weekend.
Looking ahead, round two may not be far off. The EURO and Google’s Weather Lab AI model hints at another tropical system tracking a similar path to Erin, forming southeast of the Bahamas early next week before recurving north. While currently modeled as weaker than Erin, it could still throw additional swell our way.
We’ll be watching closely and fine-tuning the beach forecast as that system develops.