Erin has dropped to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, as of the 11 a.m. National Hurricane Center update.
Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days due to inner-core structural changes.
The minimum pressure rose to near 946 mb (27.94 inches).
At 11 a.m., Hurricane Erin was about 200 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and 240 miles east of Grand Turk Island.
Erin is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. A turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for the Southeast Bahamas.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.
Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week.
Hurricane Erin is expected to turn to the north and be offshore to the east of Jacksonville on Tuesday. Increasing winds along the coast and rip current risk at the beaches will be the biggest hazards as Erin passes by.
Another area the National Hurricane Center is watching is just off the coast of the Carolinas and is producing disorganized showers and storms. This area is expected to move into the Atlantic without tropical development.
A second tropical wave is being monitored, as well, by the Hurricane Center. An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of the week. Some development could occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15-20 mph.
