Erin strengthened Saturday into a strong Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph before dropping back to a Category 4, as of the 8 p.m. National Hurricane Center update.
Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days due to inner-core structural changes.
The minimum pressure rose to near 934 mb (27.58 inches).
At 8 p.m., Hurricane Erin was about 150 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Erin is moving toward the west at 15 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.
Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week.
Hurricane Erin is expected to turn to the north and be offshore to the east of Jacksonville on Tuesday. Increasing winds along the coast and rip current risk at the beaches will be the biggest hazards as Erin passes by.
Another area the National Hurricane Center is watching is just off the coast of the Carolinas and is producing disorganized showers and storms. This area is expected to move into the Atlantic without tropical development.
