JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Compact Tropical Storm Erin is churning westward across the Atlantic Ocean.
The good news is that it has not strengthened and remains weak, compact, and far from land.
The storm is more than 2,000 miles from Jacksonville and is expected to stay over the open Eastern and central Atlantic for the next 8 days.
Where Erin is now
As of Tuesday afternoon, Erin sits well west of the Cabo Verde Islands with winds near 45 mph.
It’s embedded in an environment of dry Saharan air, which has kept thunderstorm activity minimal and prevented intensification. Most of the cloud cover you see on satellite isn’t even from Erin itself — it’s from the Intertropical Convergence Zone just to the south.
Erin is racing west at 22 mph — more than double the forward speed of an average tropical cyclone. Models agree it will remain a tropical storm through Wednesday before entering a more humid, moisture-rich environment closer to the Lesser Antilles late this week.
That’s where strengthening is expected, potentially making Erin the first hurricane of the 2025 season by the weekend.
The forecast track
National Hurricane Center projections and global models like the GFS and European (ECMWF) show Erin tracking well north of the Caribbean islands, missing Puerto Rico, and eventually curving toward Bermuda.
- GFS model: Takes Erin farther east, passing closer to Bermuda.
- European model: Slightly slower, farther west, and historically more reliable.
Both agree this is not a U.S. threat at this point. Steering currents from the Bermuda High and incoming cold fronts next week are expected to nudge Erin north, keeping it offshore.
Why the slow start?
The tropical storm’s sluggish development comes down to dry air — lots of it. The Saharan Air Layer is suppressing convection and keeping the storm’s core small. By late week, Erin will encounter more humid air from the central Atlantic and even tendrils of tropical moisture lifting from Venezuela.
This moisture injection could help it strengthen into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher).
Impacts for Florida
While the storm stays at sea, Florida will get waves but not wind. Surf will build along our coastline next week, with long-period swells arriving by Monday night (Aug. 21) and peaking Tuesday into Wednesday. Wave heights could reach 5–6 feet, with overhead sets. That also means an increased risk of rip currents mid-week.
Local weather
Here at home, we’re catching a brief break in the daily downpours.
Rain chances today sit near 30% for inland counties, with most of Duval County and coastal Georgia staying dry. Highs will reach the mid-90s, with heat and humidity making it feel even hotter.
- Tomorrow: Rain chances rise as the seabreeze returns.
- Weekend: Hot and humid with scattered storms and highs in the 90s.