On this full moon Saturday, rain and thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered for SE Georgia and NE Florida. There is a heightened concern for flooding at the Florida-Georgia border to Jesup, Georgia.
Game Day Preparations: If you are heading to the Jaguars pre-season game, take a poncho for off-and-on light rain. You will experience rounds of cloudy to sunny skies. Rain accumulation will be low. However, lightning will be the greatest concern throughout the day. By 10 PM another round of more dangerous storms are possible along the coast.
An east wind offshore will push storms more inland, reducing the chance for storms along the coast and east of the Saint Johns River until after sunset.
SATURDAY FOR FLORIDA: Temperatures will peak into the low 80s, with light winds from the east. There will be high humidity with mostly cloudy skies. Rain accumulation will be below a tenth to half an inch. Thunderstorms are possible through midnight, with the greatest chances between 3 PM and 6 PM. Rain chances remain between 40% and 60%
SATURDAY FOR GEORGIA: Breezy winds for the afternoon before dying down around 6 PM. Wind will continue from the east. Temperatures will peak in the low 80s, with rain accumulation between half an inch to one inch by 5 AM Sunday. Rain chances will be 70% until after sunset.
SUNDAY FORECAST
Rain chances begin at 11 am and continue through the evening. Temperatures begin in the mid 70s with light winds from the Southeast, partly cloudy skies, high humidity. Temperatures will peak into the upper 80s, with breezy winds from 2 PM to 6 PM. Gusts peak at 20 miles per hour. Cloud coverage increases from 5 PM through midnight. Rain accumulation for Jacksonville is expected to be at least half an inch through the day. Rain accumulation for Brunswick is expected to be at least an inch through the day.
Overall for the entire weekend, one to three inches is expected for our area but heavy downpours could lead to four to six inches total in some areas.
RIP CURRENT RISK: MODERATE
SUNDAY TIMELINE
SATURDAY TIMELINE
TRACKING THE TROPICS
These disturbances are currently no threat to Florida or Georgia.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is producing a large area of disorganized rain and thunderstorms just off the west coast of Africa. It could develop slowly into a tropical depression by mid week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Formation chance through 48 hours 10%
Formation chance through 7 days 60%
Central Atlantic (AL96):Disorganized rain and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. These types of storms need moisture to sustain and grow. As AL96 moves into a dry air mass, development will stall. Once it moves north development chances increase.
Formation chance through 48 hours is at 0%
Formation chance through 7 days is at 20%
Long term models: Toward the end of the month a tropical storm could near the Lesser Antilles and move through the Caribbean Sea toward southern Florida. The possible occurrence is too fair out in time to be considered accurate.
