Jacksonville, Fl – It has been a sweltering stretch of summer in Jacksonville, but even hotter weather is on the horizon. A major heat wave developing over the central U.S. is poised to expand eastward — and while the core of the furnace will broil the Plains, Northeast Florida is positioned to catch the edge of the blaze.
Here at home, we’ve already been feeling the heat. Jacksonville hit 97 degrees back in early in May — still the hottest day of the year so far— but July is shaping up as the hottest month so far. Twice this month, temperatures have soared to 96 degrees, and the average high has settled at 92.7°F — a full degree above the normal July average. That kind of persistent heat lays the groundwork for what’s coming next.
Cranking Up the Heat
With rain chances backing off starting this weekend, the atmosphere will dry out just enough to allow even more daytime heating. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday. Some interior locations, especially west of I-95 and away from coastal sea breeze influence, could briefly near 100. That would rival or even surpass May’s peak reading.
By Tuesday and Wednesday next week, afternoon thunderstorms will make a return, helping cap the highs back into the lower to mid 90s — but that’s still above normal, and the added humidity will push heat index values closer to 105 in some spots.
The Bigger Picture: What’s Fueling This?
Zooming out, a significant ridge of high pressure is forecast to expand across the central U.S. over the next 10 to 15 days. Multiple models — including the European ensemble and NOAA guidance — show this ridge acting like a heat engine, pumping extreme temperatures into the nation’s midsection and parts of the Southeast.
In fact, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has flagged the July 24–30 window as a period of “extreme heat risk” across a broad swath of the country. This includes much of the Mississippi Valley, the Gulf Coast states, and the lower Appalachian region. While Florida may ride the southern rim of the ridge, we’re still in line for drier skies, fewer cooling storms, and hotter afternoons.
The ensemble forecasts show well-above-average 500mb heights building overhead — a classic signal of subsiding air and a stagnant, hot air mass aloft. Once that ridge locks in, it’s difficult to dislodge quickly. That means this isn’t just a few hot days; it’s the potential for a prolonged spell of dangerous heat for large parts of the country — including right here in Northeast Florida.
What This Means for Us
For Jacksonville residents, it’s a one-two punch: we’re already running warmer than usual for July, and the incoming pattern may push us into rare air. If we log another couple of days at or above 96 degrees, this July could not only retain its title as the hottest month of the summer, but potentially challenge for one of the hottest Julys on record.
Stay ahead of the heat — hydrate, take breaks during peak sun hours, and be mindful of vulnerable populations. The heat index is more than a number; it’s a health risk when it climbs over 105 for multiple days.
Bottom line: the oven door isn’t shutting anytime soon — and Florida’s about to feel the preheat from the rest of the country.