JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – While the National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the northern Gulf of Mexico with a 30% chance of development over the next seven days, the more immediate and impactful story for Florida is not about a tropical storm—it’s about tropical downpours.
Currently, the system in question is a mid-level disturbance, not a surface low, and it lacks the ingredients needed for rapid tropical organization. In fact, the short-term chances of development remain a mere 20%, and that aligns with the scattershot signals seen across multiple computer models.
In other words — don’t expect a named storm, but do expect soaked sandals.
This feature first spun off a dying frontal boundary off the East Coast. While the primary surface low raced away near the Delmarva Peninsula, a weak dip in the mid-level flow peeled off and is now drifting south across Florida. There’s no surface circulation yet—just a pocket of mid-level vorticity and deep tropical moisture.
Rainmaker, Not Stormmaker
It’s a very, very good chance of heavy rain over Florida, not necessarily because of any tropical cyclone, but due to moisture pooling and lingering instability. You don’t need a named storm to get flash floods—this setup proves it.
As the mid-level low crosses the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday, it will act like a sponge being wrung out. Tropical moisture will surge from the south, pumping through the atmosphere and setting the stage for widespread heavy rainfall through midweek.
Forecast guidance shows 2–6 inches of rain possible across the lower two-thirds of the peninsula, especially south of the I-4 corridor. Southeast and Southwest Florida are in the crosshairs for the highest totals. The Weather Prediction Center is flagging a moderate risk of excessive rainfall, meaning localized flash flooding is in play.
Will This System Develop?
Maybe. But probably not.
There is a small window from Tuesday into Wednesday when a weak surface low could try to spin up in the northeast Gulf as the mid-level energy enters the warm water. But the lack of organization, shear, and weak model agreement keep this disturbance firmly in the “watch, don’t worry” category.
No cohesive track, no strong low, and certainly no hurricane threat. It will be just a “messy wet system” with plenty of rain and minimal structure.
The Bigger Picture
The broader tropics remain quiet. Out in the Atlantic, Saharan dust continues to suppress development, and cooler waters off Africa are putting the brakes on tropical waves. Long-range models aren’t showing any major organized systems until perhaps late in the month, and even then, it’s vague.