JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – If you’ve got plans to enjoy the holiday weekend in Jacksonville or surrounding areas, you’ll want to keep an eye on the skies, especially as we head into Friday and the rest of the weekend.
Today and tomorrow are expected to bring more manageable weather, with passing showers that shouldn’t pack as big a punch.
The main concern for heavier rainfall and flooding risk is forecast from Friday through Sunday.
For those planning to watch or set off fireworks, showers and scattered storms are more likely during the afternoon and early evening, but the weather is expected to improve after 9 p.m.
If your celebration starts early, have a poncho handy and be prepared for some lightning—though the rain itself should be light in most spots, generally ranging from under a tenth to a quarter of an inch in Jacksonville.
Firework enthusiasts can be a bit more optimistic for shows starting late, when things are likely to taper down.
Even with quick-moving showers, the best advice is to stay weather-aware. Most rain should shift inland as the afternoon progresses, and for many, a brief break under cover is all that may be needed.
Tropical system development
The Weather Authority team is also tracking an area in the Gulf where a tropical system may develop.
As shown in The Weather Authority’s Exact Track 4D graphics, this area—sitting behind a stalled low—now has about a 40% chance of forming over the next seven days.
The odds of development have been increasing, but even if the system remains disorganized, it’s expected to bring extra moisture and rain to Jacksonville and much of central and south Florida.
The meteorologist reports that the highest rainfall totals through the period are expected further inland: areas like Gainesville, Palatka, Macclenny, and up toward Jacksonville and St. Marys.
The coastline will still likely see more than an inch, but flooding risks are slightly higher farther from the coast.
Stay tuned for updates as the situation continues to develop.
Extended weather outlook
Temperatures are forecast to start in the 70s during the mornings and climb into the upper 80s to 90s during the days through the weekend and into next week.
The Weather Authority also highlights a moderate risk for rip currents, so anyone headed to the beach is advised to take extra care.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are set to continue each afternoon; though severe weather is not expected today or tomorrow, it’s always a good idea to remain prepared.
The full seven-day outlook from News4JAX shows that even after the holiday weekend, expect more of the same: highs in the 80s and low 90s, with frequent afternoon showers.
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