Isolated thunderstorms are possible for Saturday afternoon.
Continuous westerly winds will converge with the Atlantic sea breeze and lead to storms.
Convection will also cause secondary storms over southeast Georgia.
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Note that these storms are extremely isolated and can catch some with outdoor plans off guard. If you hear thunder roar or dark clouds, go indoors.
The storms will move in and out quickly with low rain accumulation. Rain is possible from 3 p.m. through 10 p.m. for isolated parts of Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. Most areas will not receive any rain at all, but will have cloud coverage.
Breezy winds will settle around 7 p.m., and humidity will increase into the 80s and 90s overnight. Rain accumulation for Jacksonville is expected to be near a quarter of an inch or less. Rain accumulation with the Brunswick area is also near a quarter of an inch or less.
Temperatures will peak into the upper 80s and low 90s but the heat index will increase the “feels like” by 5 to 7 additional degrees. Winds continue to come from the southwest at 7 to 10 miles per hour through the early morning hours.
LOOKING AHEAD
On Sunday, moist air from the Gulf will continue to move west across the state of Florida. It will cause scattered storms.
Rain chances for Southeast Georgia will be higher than Northeast Florida.
Some of the thunderstorms will produce:
Strong winds, downbursts, heavy rainfall and lightning.
The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk, shaded in yellow for parts of Southeast Georgia for Sunday
Breezing winds are expected.
Throughout the rest of the week dew points are expected to stay in the 60 and 70 range. Relative Humidity will peak at night and early morning hours before decreasing during the day. Precipitable water will range between 1.8 and 2.4 during the week. 2.4 will be more concentrated in SE Georgia. Winds will come from the west at the beginning of the week and start coming from the south and southeast by the end of the week. Temperatures will peak above average.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
The National Hurricane Center does not see any development in the next seven days that would lead to a cyclone.
Current Observation from the National Hurricane Center
1620 UTC
TROPICAL WAVES: A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 02N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis, from 04N to 08N between 50W and 60W
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ: The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north and south of the ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA: High pressure prevails, with light to gentle SE to S winds and 2-4ft season. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Winds may pulse to moderate speeds off the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf off the coasts of Texas and Mexico. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly westward into the central Gulf through the middle of nextweek. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoonand evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south- central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA...The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures over south America is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela, as captured by the latest satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central basin, with 5-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery along the coast of Nicaragua. For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into the Bahamas and S Florida later today through the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through the middle of next week, except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds will be mainly elsewhere. Seas will build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week. Of Note: A potential for significant rain exist this weekend, into early next week, across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this time. Please, refer to your local meteorological office for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN...A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb high pressure centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. A few showers are near 30N70W near a dissipating trough. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough near 79W will continue to enhance weather east of it, mainly N of 29N. Atlantic high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N.
