JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its first seasonal hurricane outlook for 2025.
NOAA forecasts 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of these, 6 to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
Forecasters also predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-average season.
Federal hurricane researchers presented these predictions from New Orleans, marking the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
This pre-season forecast exceeds the typical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The season is anticipated to be above normal due to several contributing factors. These include persistent ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, predicted weak wind shear, and potentially increased activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary source of Atlantic hurricanes.
All these factors favor tropical storm formation, while the confluence of these conditions collectively increases the likelihood of tropical storm development.
A year ago, NOAA issued its highest May hurricane prediction on record, forecasting 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes.
The actual season closely aligned with the forecast, with 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, making 2024 an “extremely active” season.
NOAA’s forecast aligns with Colorado State University’s (CSU) April 2025 prediction of above-normal activity, which specifically forecasted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA’s outlook provides an initial assessment for residents in hurricane-prone areas along the Atlantic coast, where the season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
While people understandably want to know what kind of season to expect, these forecasts have limited value for individual preparedness decisions.
These forecasts are based on long-term patterns. Hurricane scientists look for recurring signals in ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and pressure systems that have historically indicated active or quiet seasons.
This is not guesswork; it relies on historical data and analogs. However, the atmosphere doesn’t always follow predicted patterns, which is why these forecasts are not perfect.
They are based on complex models that can sometimes be inaccurate. Furthermore, they only predict the number of storms, not their specific paths.
Most locations will not be hit, even in a busy year. However, it only takes one storm in the wrong place to make a season impactful, so it is wise to remain prepared regardless of the outlook.
CSU will provide its next updates on Wednesday, June 11, Wednesday, July 9, and Wednesday, Aug. 6. They will also issue two-week forecasts for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the peak season from August to October.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update its 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, before the historical peak of the season.