JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A recent string of devastating tornadoes across the U.S. is underscoring a disturbing trend: while the total number of tornadoes each year is not significantly increasing, the most destructive outbreaks are becoming more frequent, more intense, and more clustered.
The deadly tornado outbreak that tore through parts of Kentucky this past weekend offers a sobering example. Multiple twisters, including at least one long-track EF-3 tornado, touched down across eastern Kentucky, killing several people and injuring dozens. The outbreak struck during the overnight hours—a historically vulnerable time.
Meteorologists have documented a shift in how tornadoes behave. Days with large, violent outbreaks are becoming more common. The stormy days are becoming more extreme.
According to research, the number of tornadoes occurring on “outbreak days” has increased since the 1970s. A 2024 study published in Monthly Weather Review developed a statistical model that confirmed an upward trend in tornado outbreak activity during winter and spring from 1979 to 2021. And a University of Chicago analysis noted that the worst tornado outbreaks expected over a five-year period have doubled in size over the past half-century — from about 40 tornadoes in 1965 to roughly 80 by 2015.
The driving force? Warmer temperatures are injecting more moisture into the atmosphere, supercharging storm systems with the energy needed to support rotating supercells — the type of storm most likely to spawn long-track, violent tornadoes. Meanwhile, shifting jet stream patterns can enhance the wind shear necessary to organize and sustain these storms.
But while the atmosphere is evolving, the resources to monitor it are under pressure.
The National Weather Service is grappling with a critical shortage of forecasters — a problem that has direct implications for public safety during severe weather.
USA TODAY reported that in the days leading up to the Kentucky tornado outbreak, the Weather Service had to scramble to cover vital shifts. For the first time in decades, not all NWS forecast offices are maintaining round-the-clock staffing. According to the Weather Service union, between 2010 and 2025, about 600 workers left the agency due to retirements or attrition. The first three months of the Trump administration alone saw another 600 people leave, including 100 who were fired.
This thinning workforce has left multiple forecast offices unable to maintain 24/7 coverage.
One of them is the Jackson, Kentucky, office — responsible for warning the region hit hardest by the recent tornadoes, where most of the fatalities occurred. On a normal night, the office might have gone dark. But forecasters were able to provide critical warnings thanks to emergency staffing measures and overtime shifts brought in with just enough lead time.
The reality is stark: Tornadoes are getting more intense and more concentrated, while our front-line weather warning infrastructure is being stretched thin. If the goal is to preserve lives during high-impact weather, ensuring adequate staffing at weather forecast offices isn’t just a budget item — it’s a life-saving necessity.