Jacksonville, Fl – While Jacksonville’s wet season typically kicks off around the first week of June, the next several days will feel like the faucet’s already been turned on. A streak of soggy days lies ahead, but don’t be too quick to call it the rainy season’s official arrival—this may just be a convincing preview.
Timing is Everything
Climatologically, our rainy season begins in early June, driven by increasing humidity, rising dew points, and daily thunderstorm development. But the onset is never set in stone—it hinges on atmospheric patterns that shift from year to year. In fact, 2024 saw a delayed start to the wet season but made up for lost time with a soggy June through August, delivering above-average rainfall across Northeast Florida.
A Gulf Low Cranks Up the Rain Machine
A slow-moving area of low pressure will hover over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast region for several days, sending multiple rounds of rain and storms into our area starting Wednesday afternoon. Rain intensity will ramp up heading into Friday and the Mother’s Day weekend, when the atmosphere gets supercharged with tropical moisture.
Current projections call for 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across most of Northeast Florida through early next week. Coastal counties could see localized totals of 4 to 8 inches, particularly Saturday through Monday. There’s even a less than 10% chance that some isolated pockets could top 10 inches over this stretch.
Flash Flood Potential: Low, But Not Zero
Despite the heavy rain outlook, immediate flooding isn’t pressing. Why? The ground is dry. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions (D0 to D1) still cover the region, and dry soils can initially absorb a lot of water. Model guidance suggests flash flooding would only become a concern if rainfall exceeds 6 inches within a 6-hour window—possible, but not currently probable.
The Drought Story: From Dry to Drenched?
April was particularly harsh on Florida’s water balance. Statewide drought conditions worsened throughout the month:
- Extreme drought (D3) grew from 2% to 17% of the state
- Severe drought (D2) surged to 30%
- Moderate drought (D1) covered 35%
- Abnormally dry (D0) areas held steady at 17%
By the end of April, nearly the entire state was experiencing some form of drought or pre-drought condition.
A Look Back: From Record Rains to Rare Snow
Ironically, North Florida had a wetter-than-normal winter, leading to less of a rainfall deficit since November compared to central and southern Florida.
That burst of winter moisture helped improve drought conditions in North Florida—though it wasn’t enough to rescue central parts of the state, where extreme drought now grips much of the interior.
Some memorable stats:
- Lake City logged its wettest January day on record with 5.71 inches on Jan. 18.
- The next day, Jacksonville notched its third wettest January day with 2.97 inches, while Jacksonville Beach topped 4 inches.
- A once-in-a-generation winter storm followed in February