JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – After more than a year under the influence of La Niña, the Pacific has shifted gears.
The April Climate Prediction Center’s report announced the return to ENSO-neutral conditions and an end to La Niña, marking a significant change to the recent cooler-than-normal Pacific water temperatures that impacted global weather patterns—including the very ones that shape ours here in Florida.
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With sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific no longer meeting La Niña thresholds, we’re entering a new chapter with important implications for our weather this summer and the approaching hurricane season.
What is ENSO-Neutral?
ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate pattern that shifts between three phases: El Niño (warmer Pacific waters), La Niña (cooler Pacific waters), and neutral. When we’re in ENSO-neutral, it means the Pacific Ocean isn’t strongly warmer or cooler than normal — it’s in between, with no clear push from either El Niño or La Niña.
In other words, the Pacific isn’t steering the atmosphere much right now. That leaves more room for other weather factors to take the lead, especially closer to home.
According to the latest NOAA ENSO update, conditions across the Pacific reflect this neutrality: central Pacific SSTs have warmed to near-average levels, while the far eastern Pacific still holds on to some lingering warmth. The deeper ocean structure is mixed—negative temperature anomalies persist below the surface in the central Pacific, but a shallow layer of warm water continues off the South American coast.
Forecast confidence and uncertainty
This transition period—spring—has long been known as the “predictability barrier” in seasonal forecasting. That means there’s typically more uncertainty now about what ENSO will do several months from now.
Still, the consensus among climate models is clear for the near term: ENSO-neutral is favored to persist through summer and likely into early fall. The NOAA forecast gives it better than a 50% chance through the August–October peak of hurricane season. Looking further ahead, the crystal ball gets hazier. By late fall and into early winter (November–January 2026), the probability of La Niña making a comeback rises to 38%, slightly higher than the 43% odds of neutral conditions persisting, while the El Niño camp is left in the dust below 20%.
What this means for Florida this summer
1. Heat and Rainfall Patterns
With no dominant ENSO phase steering the large-scale atmosphere, Florida’s summer weather is likely to lean on regional drivers—like sea breeze interactions, Gulf and Atlantic SSTs, and local soil moisture feedbacks. In general, ENSO-neutral summers in Florida trend toward “typical”: hot, humid, and stormy. Afternoon thunderstorms will be frequent fliers, especially inland, but without the suppressive effects of El Niño or the dryness sometimes ushered in by La Niña, rainfall will likely track close to normal.
2. Hurricane Season 2025: No Free Pass
Neutral conditions during hurricane season mean the Pacific isn’t likely to help—or hurt—Atlantic storm formation. With La Niña gone, the atmospheric setup becomes less favorable for tropical cyclone activity than it was during last summers La Niña, but still more favorable than if El Niño was in play.
Right now, the Atlantic Basin is running warmer than average, and that warmth fuels storms. With ENSO-neutral expected during the critical August–October window, all eyes will turn toward other factors—like African easterly waves, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and Saharan dust—for clues on storm timing and intensity.
While water temperatures are well above averages across the Atlantic, they are not as high as last year. However, the warmer water has skewed the Colorado State University’s April seasonal hurricane forecast to an above-normal season.
Bottom line
La Niña is done, but Florida’s weather story is far from written.
ENSO-neutral summers tend to feature classic peninsula patterns: sweltering days, towering thunderheads, and the constant hum of the tropics waking up. And while a neutral ENSO doesn’t guarantee an active hurricane season, it certainly doesn’t suppress one either.