JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Colorado State University (CSU) has released its initial forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an above-average season with nine hurricanes.
A total of 17 named storms are predicted, along with 4 major hurricanes.
This forecast is primarily driven by the observation of above-average water temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.
These conditions are expected to persist throughout the season, which favors a higher likelihood of tropical cyclones.
Several factors contribute to CSU’s prediction of an above-average hurricane season:
- Warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures: Warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are expected to weaken the subtropical high-pressure system, leading to reduced winds across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions favor a more conducive environment for hurricane formation, with both warmer waters and lower atmospheric pressure creating an unstable atmosphere that enhances cyclonic activity.
- Weakening La Niña and neutral ENSO conditions: While the tropical Pacific is currently experiencing weak La Niña conditions, this is expected to transition to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the coming months. The absence of a strong El Niño reduces the likelihood of increased upper-level westerly winds, which are known to cause vertical wind shear and inhibit hurricane development. With neutral ENSO conditions, the atmosphere in the Atlantic should remain more favorable for tropical cyclones.
- Historical accuracy of early forecasts: CSU notes that while the initial April forecast is based on the best available data, it tends to have the lowest skill level due to the inherent unpredictability of atmospheric and oceanic conditions at this early stage. Changes in these conditions, such as unexpected shifts in ocean temperatures or atmospheric patterns, can significantly impact the accuracy of the forecast as the season progresses.
Comparison to the 2024 Forecast
In comparing CSU’s initial 2025 forecast with their predictions for the 2024 season, it’s clear that both years are influenced by similar oceanic and atmospheric patterns, but the specifics differ.
CSU’s forecast last April was more bullish. It included 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 23 named tropical cyclones.
In total, 2024 produced 11 hurricanes, 18 named storms, and 5 major hurricanes.
The April forecast is the first of several seasonal forecasts that will be revised through the 2025 season. The next update will be on June 11.