Jacksonville, Fla. – It feels like winter made an early exit from the greater Jacksonville area this year.
The latest climate outlook for February continues to show a warm and dry pattern, with above-normal temperatures expected throughout the month.
And we may be on record watch Friday. It could come close to tying or breaking the daily record if temperatures reach 82 degrees, which is very possible.
This pattern is typical of a weak La Niña, like the one currently in place. Jacksonville and surrounding areas have been running above average for over a week, and there’s no sign of highs dipping below the 80s anytime soon.
With the continued warmth and drier-than-normal conditions, drought is expected to expand, particularly across the southern portions of the region. This could lead to dry soil conditions heading into the next growing season.
The average last freeze in Jacksonville is late February, but looking ahead, longer-range models show no frost or freezes in sight for the remainder of the month.
The earliest we may see rain in Northeast Florida is around Valentine’s Day, with most precipitation staying focused over Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
Early-season drought and its impact on agriculture will be something to watch closely.
Rain totals are one inch above average in Jacksonville since December 1, but soil moisture is starting to run low. Farmers may face challenges as the growing season begins. Once plants exit dormancy with the upcoming warm spell, their water demand increases sharply, and if dry and warm conditions persist, precipitation alone may not be enough to compensate for the deficit.