JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It’s been an unseasonably cold January, and we’re about to get a serious blast of wintry weather.
After this weekend’s rain, an Arctic cold front will send in the coldest air we have seen this winter, bringing temperatures that rarely hit this hard.
Next week, afternoon highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s, with the week kicking off with at least three consecutive freezing nights. This has everyone wondering: will it snow? Believe it or not, there’s even a slim chance of snow flurries close to Jacksonville if the atmospheric stars align.
Here’s the breakdown:
- While Georgia could see snow that sticks to the ground, snowflakes in Jacksonville are highly unlikely at this point
- A much more realistic concern for Northeast Florida is freezing rain starting Tuesday night.
- Wednesday morning could be hazardous for drivers.
The potential for winter weather, including snow and freezing rain, increases along and north of the I-10 corridor from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Before this main event, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle could see a 10% chance of flurries on Monday evening.
Tuesday night: The snow event
The best opportunity for wintry precipitation arrives Tuesday night and continues into Wednesday morning. The best area locally for snow will be in Waycross, Georgia. It has a 30-40% chance of seeing over an inch of snow, with Brunswick close behind at 20-30%.
Temperatures will be well below freezing Wednesday morning inland and could freeze along the beaches from St. Johns County northward.
For Jacksonville to experience snow, a unique and precise combination of weather factors would need to converge — a long shot, indeed.
As of now the air above the ground in Jacksonville does not look cold enough for snow even though the surface will be freezing. This vertical atmospheric profile could result in sleet or freezing rain around Duval, Nassau, and counties west along I-10.
The graphic below is a cross-section of the atmosphere through time with the forecast starting on Friday at the left and ending on Wednesday at the right. The white areas right of the dashed line are temperatures below freezing at the surface. Since the air is not freezing aloft snow is not likely in Jacksonville based on this forecast chart.
Warmer air aloft results in rain freezing on contact with freezing surface temperature which is a concern Tuesday night. Models indicate up to an inch of rain may freeze on the roads over inland north Florida which would be dangerous for the commute to work Wednesday.
The reality is it’s still too early to pinpoint the exact type of precipitation — freezing rain, snow, or sleet — as we’re still four days away from any potential wintry mix. The specifics will depend on the precise timing of moisture meeting freezing temperatures. Stay tuned for updates as this frosty forecast develops!