Weekend rain is on the way with the chance for flooding. Here is a day-by-day look

JACKSONVILLE, FLA – Get ready for a wet weekend.

A much-needed weather system is on the way, promising to bring beneficial rain to the region. However, it’s going to be a bit of a dampener for your outdoor plans, especially on Saturday evening. Let’s break down the details and help you maximize your weekend.

The Big Picture: Why All the Rain?

This weekend’s rainmaker comes from a developing low-pressure system forming over the Deep South. As this system gains strength, it will tap into an unusually high amount of moisture streaming from the Gulf of Mexico. Meteorologists measure atmospheric moisture using something called precipitable water, or PW. Simply put, PW tells us how much water is in the air, ready to fall as rain if conditions are right.

For context, PW values are expected to rise 2 to 2.5 times higher than normal for this time of year. Think of it like a sponge — the air can hold only so much water before it’s wrung out, and in this case, that wringing process will happen as the system moves through, bringing waves of rain and thunderstorms.

What Does This Mean for Your Weekend?

• Saturday Morning: This is your best window for any outdoor plans. The morning hours will be dry, with spotty showers beginning to pop up during the afternoon. If you have errands to run, a soccer game to catch, or a morning walk planned, get them done before 2 p.m. That window will be shorter in Georgia where the rain will begin in the morning.
• Saturday Evening and Night: Rain will become more widespread after sunset, with thunderstorms likely in some areas. The west-southwesterly flow of moisture will set the stage for prolonged, heavy rain in spots, particularly across southern Georgia and northern Florida. This is where “training” could occur — a phenomenon where rain bands repeatedly move over the same areas, much like train cars rolling over the same tracks. This could lead to localized flooding in low-lying areas, especially since the ground is already moist from recent rains.
• Sunday: Stays cloudy with a second round of lighter rain moving through. A cold front sweeps across the area pushing the low pressure out. This will diminish rain totals for Sunday down to about 0.10 to 0.25 inches in southern Georgia and 0.25 to 0.50 inches in northern Florida. It’s not a washout, but you’ll want to keep the umbrella handy if you’re heading out.

Why the Rain Matters

While the rain might disrupt your weekend plans, it’s a welcome sight for our parched region. So far this month, we’ve only had rain on four days, with the last significant event bringing two inches of rain on Monday.

Even with that, much of the area remains classified as abnormally dry on the Florida drought scale. This weekend’s rainfall, totaling 1 to 2 inches in some spots, will go a long way toward replenishing the rain deficits.

Plan Ahead

• Morning Is Best: If you’re planning to be outdoors on Saturday, aim for the morning hours when it’s still dry.
• Evening Plans? Be Flexible: Saturday night will be wet, with periods of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms. Consider indoor activities or rescheduling outdoor events.
• Watch for Minor Flooding: Low-lying areas prone to poor drainage could see minor runoff issues late Saturday into early Sunday, so be cautious while driving or walking in these spots.

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