JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a nail-biter to the end, keeping seasonal hurricane forecasters on the edge of their seats this past hurricane season. So how did they do in predicting the numbers?
Early predictions were dire, with terms like “above normal” and “potentially explosive” used to describe the anticipated tropical activity. And the experts weren’t wrong.
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The season, which officially ended on Nov. 30, was a memorable one. Colorado State University (CSU), a pioneer in long-range hurricane predictions, hit the nail on the head with its early forecasts. They accurately predicted the number of hurricanes (11) and major hurricanes (5). While they slightly overestimated the total number of named storms at 23, their predictions were the most accurate overall.
CSU excels in providing precise guidance, making their predictions notably accurate compared to others that offer a broad range of storm counts. As pioneers in long-range forecasting, even before the use of hurricane models, their expertise shines through.
Other forecasting groups, like NOAA and AccuWeather, also had good accuracy, particularly with their hurricane and major hurricane predictions.
The 2024 season left its mark in the record books. It tied for the fifth-most hurricanes in the satellite era (since 1966), and tied for the second-most continental U.S. hurricane landfalls. It also had some unique quirks, like a period of no named storms between August and September, followed by a flurry of activity that set records for late-season storm formation.
From the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to the strongest hurricane to hit the Big Bend region, the 2024 season was one for the books, and hopefully won’t be repeated.