JACKSONVILLE, FL – Growing populations and suburban sprawl are increasing the risk of tornado vulnerability.
Mortality rates for tornadoes in the Mid-South including Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi, are four to five times greater than those in Tornado Alley plains states.
One significant aspect of this is the impact of urbanization on tornado frequency and risk according to Walker Ashley, a Professor of Meteorology at Northern Illinois University.
As urban areas expand, particularly in regions like the Mid-South where many manufactured homes are located, the risk of tornadoes becomes more pronounced.
Half of all tornado deaths occur in manufactured/mobile homes even though they account for only 8% of the nation’s housing stock.
The increased exposure of people and assets in these areas and the shift of tornado frequency eastward are making the risk higher even though there’s limited evidence to suggest a significant increase in the number of tornadoes, especially significant ones.
Climate change plays a role in exacerbating these risks, with increasing heat and moisture providing more energy for stronger storms.
While there’s still uncertainty about how climate change impacts severe convective storms, models suggest an increase in severe weather events in the future.
Professor Ashley uses numerical modeling to assess the environmental factors that support tornado formation to understand these changes. These models show an increase in severe weather events, particularly in the Mid-South, due to changing environmental conditions.
However, the challenge lies not just in understanding the risk but also in addressing vulnerability. Vulnerability is driven by factors like land use, population density, and housing quality. In the Mid-South, the expansion of urban areas and the prevalence of mobile and manufactured homes contribute to increased vulnerability.
Mitigating these risks includes improving building codes and regional land use policies. However, these solutions require long-term commitment and investment from local communities and policymakers.
Ultimately, addressing the impacts of urbanization on tornado risk requires a multifaceted approach that considers both the scientific understanding of tornado formation and the social and political factors that influence vulnerability and exposure.