Colorado State University (CSU) has unveiled its much-anticipated preseasonal hurricane forecast for the upcoming 2024 season, and the outlook is stirring attention.
Predictions indicate a staggering 23 named storms, with 11 expected to intensify into hurricanes, including five potentially reaching major status.
This projection stands as the highest ever issued by CSU in its April outlook, signaling potentially turbulent times ahead. Hurricane season begins June 1.
What sets this forecast apart is not only the elevated numbers but also the notable confidence behind the predictions. Unlike previous April outlooks, which often carry a degree of uncertainty, CSU’s meteorologists express a strong conviction in this forecast. The basis for this confidence lies in the formidable atmospheric conditions primed to fuel above-average hurricane activity throughout the Atlantic basin.
Key factors driving this heightened activity include record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, setting the stage for robust storm development. Additionally, the anticipated transition to the La Niña phase further amplifies the likelihood of increased hurricane formation in the region.
CSU’s suite of forecast models unanimously points toward a hyperactive hurricane season, underlining the gravity of the forecast.
Compared to the previous season, which saw 20 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three reaching major status, 2024′s predictions are notably more robust.
The 2023 season itself was historically significant, tying with 1933 for the fourth-highest number of recorded systems, indicating a trend toward increasingly active hurricane seasons in recent years.
Looking ahead, CSU plans to provide regular updates on June 11 and throughout the inter-season period, offering crucial insights as the hurricane season unfolds. These updates will be vital for communities and authorities to prepare and mitigate potential risks associated with the forecasted intense hurricane activity.