Is the political temperature in America running into the danger zone?
Frankly, research and hard data on political violence aren’t readily available, but a growing trend of threats against public officials can’t be ignored.
In 2024 alone, U.S. Capitol Police, who are like the Secret Service for Congress members, investigated more than 9,000 threats against lawmakers, marking an 83% increase from the year prior. That year, then-former President Donald Trump survived an attempt on his life at a rally in Pennsylvania and another alleged assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach.
Just last month, a man disguised as a police officer attacked two Democratic legislators at their Minnesota homes, killing a state representative and her husband and wounding another lawmaker and his wife.
Police say the accused killer was planning to attack other local politicians and abortion rights activists.
The assassination and attempted murder in Minnesota have reignited the long-standing question of how to ensure the safety of 535 U.S. lawmakers and their families with limited resources in an increasingly toxic political environment.
U.S. lawmakers are demanding that more be done.
Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who was threatened with a plot against his life, said: “We’re not safe, and our families are not safe. Capitol Police does a great job. They’re great people. But they’re not set up for this. They don’t have the resources.”
Increasing political violence?
The attacks in Minnesota and against Trump are somber wake-up calls that we might be entering an era of increasing political violence.
But one of the problems is that it’s difficult to quantify violence because ideological motives or relationships can’t always be determined.
So, is the propensity toward political violence really increasing? Well, the number of incidents is rising, and that could very well be the harbinger.
For example, during national “No Kings” demonstrations against the Trump administration, violence and what was described as near violence were reported across the U.S.
- In California, protesters surrounded a car, and the driver ran over a protester’s leg
- A man in Arizona was arrested after police said he flashed a gun at protesters
- And a Jewish lawmaker in Ohio said he was run off the road by a man waving a Palestinian flag at him
Police have also investigated anti-Muslim threats against New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.
In an interview with The Guardian, Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, said: “We are in a historically high period of American political violence. ... I call it our ‘era of violent populism.’ It’s been about 50 years since we’ve seen something like this. And the situation is getting worse.”
‘A major problem’
An NPR/PBS/Marist Poll taken at the beginning of the month shows that nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) see politically motivated violence as a major problem.
That survey discovered the U.S. is having difficulty trying to figure out what it means to be an American, as well as who belongs and who doesn’t.
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Many people say there is a struggle to decide on the direction this country should take, and the majority of those surveyed have little faith in political leadership.
When it comes to political violence, polarizing politics might be a part of the equation, but not wholly responsible. Some believe, right or wrong, that the violent rhetoric that exists has become somewhat normalized.
Jon Lewis, a research fellow at George Washington University’s Program on Extremism, put it this way: There is increasing tolerance of the idea that “political violence, targeted hate, harassment, is OK if it’s your in-group … against the ‘other side.’”
Let’s face it, though, that rhetoric IS a part of the problem!
And Lewis told The Guardian that he thinks Republican party leaders shoulder more responsibility for the violent climate.
“We haven’t seen the mainstream political left embrace political violence in the same way,” he said.
Regardless of statistics, it’s clear the problem is getting worse, and this nation -- “We the People” -- needs to figure out how to nip it in the bud.
Maybe the answer is to have America’s political leaders openly condemn political violence.
Pape offered one novel idea: “The absolute No. 1 thing that should happen … is that President (Donald) Trump and (Democratic California) Gov. (Gavin) Newsom do a joint video condemning political violence.”
Can you imagine that happening?
Political analyst Sean Freeder joins me Tuesday for Politics & Power. Watch at 7 p.m. or 9 p.m. Tuesday on News4JAX+ or catch it any time on demand on News4JAX+, News4JAX.com or the News4JAX YouTube Channel.