ST. JOHNS COUNTY, Fla. – It is just days away from a special election in Northeast Florida and we will soon find out who will be the new Representative for Congressional District 6.
The district includes parts of St. Johns County and all of Putnam.
The election, where early voting is underway, decides who will become a US Representative and fill the seat left empty by former Rep. Mike Waltz, who’s now a part of the Trump Administration.
A recent poll shows the Democratic candidate Josh Weil neck and neck with Republican candidate Randy Fine, who is backed by President Donald Trump.
In the most recent general election, President Trump won the district by 30 points.
But a new poll conducted by St. Pete Polls doesn’t show Fine winning the special election with as much of a lead as President Trump did in November, and the race could end up much closer than many Republicans expected.
Dr. Michael Binder, the faculty director of the UNF Public Opinion Research Lab, said though the new poll shows Weil not far behind Fine he doesn’t think the race is that competitive.
Partly because Republicans have a double-digit registration lead in the district and because the poll includes independent voters or what he calls NPAs.
“These special elections are very weird. It’s difficult to learn and figure out who’s going to show up,” Binder said. “So even though it looks like in this survey, Weil might be winning independents, it’s possible that the types of independents that you’re getting might lean Democrat, and it’s also more than likely that they’re not going to show up at that size of a rate.”
News4JAX went to a polling location in St. Johns County on Thursday to ask people who they voted for.
None wanted to answer but, several people had comments on the poll.
“I would hope it would make more people come out and vote. That’d be my guess,” said Jill Morales.
“I personally think some people are paying attention to polls and trying to leverage them and see if they should, I guess everyone should vote either way. But maybe when the margin is close more people would get out the vote,” Tim Hayes said.
News4JAX asked Binder could the recent poll predict what we’ll see in the midterms next year, and he said not entirely.
However, he said it’s typical for the party opposite of the sitting president to perform better in the midterm.
The special election for Congressional District 6 is Tuesday.
