JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It’s not often we get a pause in the August rainy season, but that’s exactly what’s shaping up for Tuesday. A cold front moving through southeast Georgia will press southward over northeast Florida tonight.
It opens the door to a mini dry spell that will carry through midweek.
Behind the front, humidity will take a noticeable dive. Dewpoints, which have been stuck in the oppressive 70s, will tumble into the 50s. That’s a dramatic change for late August in Florida and enough to shut down the daily thunderstorm machine—at least temporarily.
The dry pattern won’t last long. By Thursday, moisture begins to creep back, and by Friday, the familiar rhythm of scattered afternoon storms will return. As we head into the holiday weekend, the front begins to lift back north, pulling in another surge of sticky tropical air. That sets the stage for increasing rounds of showers and storms, especially on Labor Day. Expect the weekend setup to feature inland storms drifting back toward the coastline each afternoon, so outdoor plans may need some dodging and weaving around storms.
Beyond the weekend, the tropics are expected to stay fairly quiet into the first week of September. That said, there are signs of a weak area of low pressure trying to spin up along the Carolinas right after Labor Day. The exact details remain uncertain, but here’s what the models are suggesting:
- GFS model: Develops a stronger low-pressure system that tracks northward toward New England. This scenario would mean more pronounced northeast winds in the Southeast coast, rougher surf, and more clouds spilling into our beaches by Sunday and Monday.
- European model (EURO): Keeps the system weaker and broader with little in the way of direct impact for the U.S. coastline, aside from some unsettled skies and onshore breezes.
For now, the more reliable Euro solution suggests this won’t be a high-impact system for Florida, but it’s worth watching as it could keep the pattern cooler.