JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday that atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor an “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane season this year.
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Ahead of the historical peak of the season, NOAA forecasters updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including two to five major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
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The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 through Nov. 30, and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed.
According to NOAA, in the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.
NOAA said the likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
“NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property, and communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued.”
The season is anticipated to be above normal due to several contributing factors. These include persistent ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, predicted weak wind shear, and potentially increased activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary source of Atlantic hurricanes.
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So far, the season has produced four named tropical storms and no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season and brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas during the Independence Day holiday weekend, NOAA said.