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Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 04-17N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed on satellite near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 18N southward to the coast of French Guiana, and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection or shower activity is noted with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 19N southward to inland over west-central Colombia, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave appears to be interacting with an upper-level trough, as scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the wave axis over the far northern Caribbean including the Windward Passage, as well as nearby coastal portions of Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, then reaches southwestward passing just south of the Cabo Verde Islands to 05N38W. The ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 05N38W to 09N53W, then westward from 10N56W to across Trinidad and Tobago and into Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between Africa and 28W.

Gulf Of America

An upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with the northern portion of a passing tropical wave, as well as a developing surface trough in the SE Bay of Campeche is triggering scattered to numerous strong convection over the Bay of Campeche, as well as widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf S of 27N. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high is interacting with the developing surface trough to induce fresh to strong E winds in the SE Bay of Campeche, with locally stronger winds in areas of convection. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the Gulf between 21-25N, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-6 ft in the SE Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the north-central Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is observed off the SW coast of Cuba. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 7-11 ft are ongoing in the central to SW Caribbean per recent altimeter and buoy data. Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are in the eastern Caribbean, with mainly moderate ENE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, two surface troughs are producing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and the adjacent waters from 24-31N between 72-77W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A pair of 1027 mb highs north of the area extend ridging across much of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of the Atlantic N of 10N. Winds are locally fresh to strong along the northern coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams