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Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 04-17N southward, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 18N southward to the coast of French Guiana, and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave appears to be interacting with an upper-level trough, as scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the wave axis over the far northern Caribbean including the Windward Passage, as well as nearby coastal portions of Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues to 05N41W. The ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 05N41W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N and E of 28W.

Gulf Of America

An upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with the northern portion of a passing tropical wave, as well as a developing surface trough in the SE Bay of Campeche is triggering scattered to numerous strong convection over the Bay of Campeche, as well as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf S of 27N. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high is interacting with the developing surface trough to induce fresh to strong E winds in the SE Bay of Campeche, with locally stronger winds in areas of convection. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the Gulf between 21-25N, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is observed off the SW coast of Cuba. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are ongoing in the central to SW Caribbean per recent altimeter and buoy data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are in the eastern Caribbean, with moderate ENE winds and slight seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, two surface troughs are producing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and the adjacent waters from 24-31N between 72-77W.

A pair of 1025 mb highs north of the area extend ridging across much of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic N of 10N. Winds are fresh to strong along the northern coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week. This pattern will continue to support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat night.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era