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Special Features

Tropical Atlantic (AL95): A broad area of low pressure, analyzed as a 1010 mb low near 09N34W, is associated with a low-latitude tropical wave along 34W, and continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers, from 06N to 13.5N between 32W and 38W. Peak winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are found within 180 nm north of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 46W from 20N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.

Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis along 61W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 11N to 16.5N between 60W and 64W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 18.5N16W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 09N34W (AL95), to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N37W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 04.5N to 09N between 10W and 25W, and from 04N to 11N between 42W and 57W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front persists along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to 1011 mb low pressure across S central Louisiana, where a trough continues southwestward to offshore of SE Texas. Isolated moderate convection dots the coastal waters south of these features. A second surface trough extends from the Mexican coast near Veracruz to 24N93W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough. An upper level trough extends from the western Bay of Campeche northeastward into the central Gulf. This upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula that extends northward and offshore to 24N and covers the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are slowly diminishing over the NE Gulf, particularly N of 28N. Seas are subsiding to 4 to 6 ft within this winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail, except for light E to SE winds north of western Cuba to 26N.

For the forecast, elongated low pressure across the NW Gulf and a stationary front across the north-central Gulf coast will drift northward and inland today. High pressure across the eastern U.S. Will then build modestly across the Gulf basin late Mon throughout the week, leading to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late Tue, then becoming moderate NE to E winds through the remainder of the week. Expect occasional locally fresh winds in the northeastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the medium range forecast for Invest AL95.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting moderate NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean, with fresh winds near the coast, and fresh to locally strong SW winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Light to moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are within these winds. Higher seas of 5 to 8 ft in N swell are noted across the NE Caribbean passages, including the Mona and Anegada Passages, and waters in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. An upper level trough extends from the western Bay of Campeche northeastward into the central Gulf of America, and is supporting scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection across the NW Caribbean extending northward through the Yucatan Channel. Another upper-level low is seen over the eastern part of the basin centered just SW of the Mona Passage. This feature is helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the eastern part of the Caribbean, between a tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles and 67W.

For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the tropical Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will gradually subside through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, each night through the middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across the northwestern Caribbean through Tue night. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds and seas across the tropical Atlantic waters with this system by the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on Invest AL95.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N42W and extends west-southwestward to 28N55W to 23N67W then across the NW Bahamas to a weak 1013 mb low pressure center along the Florida coast near Delray Beach. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the frontal boundary, and also extends southward across the central Bahamas. 1028 mb high pressure is centered offshore of New Jersey, and is inducing a tight pressure gradient north of the front. Fresh to strong easterly winds are N of the frontal boundary and W of 55W, with seas 8 to 12 ft in lingering NE swell. Farther east, a 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and a surface trough over NW Africa supports fresh to locally strong NE winds between the Canary Islands, and offshore Western Sahara. These winds also cover the waters from 18N to 25N E of 25W to the coast of W Africa. Rough seas to 9 ft are within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic between 25W and 55W. Slowly fading northerly swell continues to dominate the basin waters this morning, with moderate to rough seas of 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell across the regional waters will gradually subside from north to south over the west and central Atlantic through Tue night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front, extending from the central Atlantic near 28N55W through the NW Bahamas and to the SE Florida coast, through late Tue before winds diminish midweek as the front drifts northward and dissipates. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds and seas over the SE waters, north trough east of the Leeward Islands, associated with this system by the end of the week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling