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Special Features

Large Atlantic Swell: A trough reaching from roughly 10N to 25N will develop over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean near 45W, associated with a broad upper trough over the region. The trough will move to the W-NW to the northeast of the Leeward Islands through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop between the trough and high pressure over the north central Atlantic Sun and Mon. This in turn will allow rough to very rough seas to develop, generally covering the waters from 15N to 30N east of 60W by late Sun. Combined seas will reach 12 ft from 20N to 25N between 45W and 60W by early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish late Mon through Tue as the trough continues westward to 65W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 06N20W to 05N25W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N 10W to 25W.

Gulf Of America

A strong high pressure north of the area centered over the Carolinas dominates the Gulf, supporting mainly dry conditions. This pattern is also supporting fresh to strong SE winds off the coast of Texas, and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida, as confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass from earlier in the evening. The fresh to strong NE winds are also supporting rough seas across the Straits of Florida. Recent altimeter satellite data also indicated seas to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel, in N swell. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are also noted off the coast of Texas, following a warm front across eastern Texas. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the southern Plains. The front will move off the Texas coast Sun, then stall along the coast from northern Florida to South Texas through late Mon. Weak low pressure along the front off Texas will move rapidly toward the Carolina coast late Mon a stationary front from Bermuda to central Cuba is followed by fresh to locally strong N winds. This front will gradually dissipate through Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night. Through early Tue, allowing reinforcing cold air into the northern Gulf by late Tue. Looking ahead, the front will move through the eastern Gulf Wed, but lift northward over the western Gulf as another area of low pressure forms over South Texas.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active along a stationary front extending from central Cuba to central Belize. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes indicated fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas north of the front to the Yucatan Channel. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the southwest Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south- central Caribbean overnight, with moderate trades elsewhere in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as the gradient weakens some. The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate through late Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is found along the front. A strong ridge over the east-central United States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then will stall and lift northward through early Tue. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N through mid week, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen