WEATHER ALERT
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to show signs of organization with a broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, high, 90 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Papin
Special Features
Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL92): A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 20N southward across a broad 1008 mb low pressure (AL92) near 12N42W. This system is moving west around 15 kt. At this time, fresh to strong winds are noted within the low, with rough seas. Numerous scattered to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 34W and 46W. This system is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. This system is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and within the next 7 days.
Please visit the NHC website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl for more detail.
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis along 16W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave from 10N-16N between 14W-18W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 21N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave, mainly N of 15N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from near the Windward Passage southward to over northern Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near Jamaica and northern Colombia.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 10N50W. Aside from the convection related to Invest AL92, no significant convection is noted along the boundary at this time.
Gulf Of America
A diurnal surface trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Bay of Campeche, and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is supporting mostly gentle NE to E winds and slight seas for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the basin through the week supporting gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night.
Caribbean Sea
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.
Convergent trades are being enhanced by divergent southerly winds aloft to generate numerous moderate to scattered strong convection at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over central Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
A subtropical ridge near 26N continues to supply a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate the north- central, eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and moderate seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Gentle NNE to E winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue moving across the central and western Caribbean through Thu night. Expect fresh trades over the central Caribbean in the wake of the wave. Another tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas will prevail through the week.
Atlantic Ocean
Please read the sections above for details on Invest AL92 and the tropical waves moving across the basin.
A mid-level low near 26N65W is triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection northeast of the Bahamas from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W. A 1024 mb high near 32N37W is sustaining gentle to moderate variable winds and moderate seas north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate winds and seas across the region through the week. Regardless of development of Invest AL92 described in the section above, expect increasing winds and building seas over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by Thu into Fri.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
