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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to near 02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 08N and E of 15W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted south of 03N and between 21W and 39W.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the basin. Winds across much of the basin are moderate or weaker, aside from a small region N of 29N between 86W and 89W where W to NW winds are locally fresh. Seas across the Gulf are generally 1-3 ft, except for an area of 3-5 ft seas in the central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure is currently present over the region. A dry cold front will move across the eastern Gulf tonight through Wed, followed by moderate to fresh northeast winds and mostly slight seas. High pressure in its wake will build southward across the basin through Thu. The high pressure will then shift east-southeastward through the weekend as pressures lower over Texas. The resultant gradient will lead to fresh to strong southeast winds and building seas across most of the basin from late Fri through Sat night.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, extending northward to 19N85W. Tropical moisture and wind convergence result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 15N to 19N between 80W and the trough axis. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough extending from eastern Hispaniola into the north-central Caribbean allows for a few showers to affect the regional waters and nearby landmasses.

Outside of this region, the enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low sustains moderate to fresh E winds across much of the basin, with locally strong winds offshore NW Colombia. Rough seas are analyzed S of 14N between 74W and 79W, with moderate seas prevailing across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, gale force winds have recently ended offshore Colombia, however, strong to near gale force winds will continue through early Wed. Seas are currently peaking to 13 ft over these same waters, but will slowly subside through Wed. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola today as a high pressure center shifts eastward across the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the south- central Caribbean will continue through the forecast period. Rough seas can be expected with the strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N48W and extends to 26N54W, where it then becomes a stationary front that runs to the far eastern coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are observed via scatterometer data from the front out to about 40W and N of 20N. Moderate seas are observed in this region as well. Behind the front, seas are 6-9 ft from the front to about 68W and N of 25N with moderate or weaker winds.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming from a 1027 mb high located near 35N26W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the tropics sustain moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas across the vast majority of the basin. A pocket of moderate to fresh W winds is observed from the Florida coast out to about 75W and N of 27N, driven by the pressure gradient betwen a 1022 mb high near 28N66W and lower pressures over the NE US. Slight seas are present in this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N49W to 26N65W, where it becomes stationary to the eastern part of Hispaniola, followed by high pressure. The gradient between the high pressure and the cold front is allowing for fresh to strong southwest to west winds to exist west of the cold front north of about 29N. The front will weaken as its continues eastward through Wed. Another cold front is expected to move offshore the southeastern U.S. Late this afternoon, reach from near 31N75W to South Florida late tonight, from near 31N72W to west-central Cuba by early Wed afternoon, from near 31N65W to central Cuba early Thu, from near 31N62W to 26N67W and stationary to Hispaniola late Thu. The cold front portion will shift east of 55W late Fri, followed by strong high pressure. The resultant gradient is expected to lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of about 26N, including near and in the Windward Passage and Straits of Florida beginning late Fri. Seas with these winds will build east of the Bahamas.

Posted 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams