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Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 18.9W, extends from 16N southward, and is moving west at around 10 kt. A 1006 mb low pressure center, AL97, is noted near 11.2N18.9W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 18N E of 23.5W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week while moving west- northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. This feature has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49.5W, from 07N to 22N, moving W at around 15 kt. A 1014 mb low pressure center, AL96, is noted along the northern portion of this axis near 21.6N49.5W. Scattered moderate convection is near this low from 21N to 28N between 48W to 51W. Development of this system appears unlikely during the next couple of days due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during the middle part of next week while the system moves northward across the central Atlantic. This feature has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and in the next 7 days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5W and continues southwestward to AL97 near 11.2N18.9W to 08.5N39W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N50.5W to 12.5N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 23.5W and 37W, and from 09N to 14N between 56W and 61W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends across north Florida and into the NE Gulf to near 26N87W. Abundant low-level moisture is streaming northward across Florida and the Gulf east of this trough, leading to scattered moderate to strong convection N of 23N and E of 86W. Similar strong convection is shifting northward off of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting scattered moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging prevails across the basin. Gentle to locally moderate E winds prevail across the N Gulf, north of the trough, where seas are 2 to 3 ft. Variable light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms may persist across the northeast Gulf into Mon south of a weak stationary front over the southeastern U.S. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the middle of next week supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE winds may pulse Mon night and Tue night west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a daily trough moves westward offshore into the Bay of Campeche each evening.

Caribbean Sea

Weak high pressure prevails over the Atlantic, extending a ridge to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient south of this ridge is yielding ongoing moderate to fresh easterlies in the central basin east of 80W, with gentle to moderate east winds in the eastern and SW basin. In the NW basin, light to gentle SE winds are present. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin, with highest seas to 7 ft offshore of NW Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted across SW portions, from 10N to 15N west of 76W in association to the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough. Similar convection is noted between Jamaica and Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure north of basin combined with low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas over the waters just offshore Venezuela and Colombia in mid week, mainly at night. Winds may increase slightly starting Wed as the pressure gradient increases. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh winds will pulse mainly at night through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast into the middle of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Abundant low-level moisture streaming northward across Florida and the Atlantic waters is leading to scattered moderate to strong convection W of 77.5W, impacting waters offshore Georgia, Florida and the NW Bahamas. A lingering frontal boundary remains stationary just north of the area. West of 55W, a broad ridge prevails, with gentle E to SE winds and moderate seas 5 ft or less dominating. To the E of this area, 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 33N41W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 8 ft dominate the area from 20N to 30N between 40W and the central Atlantic tropical wave. S of 20N, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and broad low pressure within the monsoon trough off of western Africa is yielding a broad area of fresh to strong N to NE winds between the monsoon trough, Morrocco and 40W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough of low pressure over Florida will bring scattered thunderstorms to nearby waters for the remainder of the weekend. Weak 1014 mb low pressure, AL96, over the central Atlantic currently near 22N50W will move generally N through Tue, having little impact on the marine weather west of 55W. A mostly stalled frontal boundary will remain just N of the region between the Carolinas and Bermuda through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, building E swell will enter the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Wed in advance of an active tropical wave and low pressure area moving westward through the central Atlantic.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv