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Special Feature

Atlc Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in the central Atlantic beginning on Sun night. As the system intensifies, gale-force winds are expected on Mon across the northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W and 55W. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N21W and then to 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04S to 00N between 08W to 22W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front reaches from southeast Louisiana to Poza Rica, Mexico. Current buoy and platform observations, along with earlier scatterometer satellite data confirm strong to near-gale force southerly winds ahead of the front across the central Gulf. Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft across the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Thunderstorms ahead of the front moving through the lower Mississippi Valley do not extend into the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will move southeast and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Sun night. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds off Veracruz Sun. Northerly winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong speeds from Sun night though Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week.

Caribbean Sea

A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This pattern is allowing for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean, with similar wind speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 6 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will build while it shifts to the southeast to the central Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night offshore Colombia through early next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through the weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will expand to the remaining northwest Caribbean ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the Yucatan Channel into the northwest basin Mon morning. Rough seas are expected with the strong winds preceding the front. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will be associated with the passage of the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening before dissipating late Wed. By Thu winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds of the coast off Colombia.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the central Atlantic.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N26W and continues southwestward to near 25N35W, where it transitions into a stationary frontal boundary that extends to 20N60W. Farther north, 1029 mb high pressure centered near 37N50W dominates the western Atlantic, supporting strong NE to E winds and roughs seas north of the front to 28N between 55W and 65W. A short wave trough in the mid/upper levels is interacting with the frontal boundary to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 28N between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE to E winds and large northerly swell of 8 to 13 ft is noted elsewhere north of the front. Moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, developing low pressure along the stationary front will support gale- force winds east of 60W by Sun night. These gale-force winds will likely last through Mon night then diminishing to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast Sun late night preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen