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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of Senegal at 14N16.5W and extends south-southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to the coast of Brazil at 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N-06.5N between 10W-21W and ongoing from 03N-09N between 27W-46W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from central Florida across the Tampa Bay area westward to 27N91W, where it becomes a warm front to the S Texas coast. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring north of the warm front across the Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters. Winds west of 95W are fresh ESE, while fresh winds are within 90 nm of the N and NW coasts of the Yucatan. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or moderate across the Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 3-5 ft in the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front from near Tampa Bay, Florida to SE Texas will gradually wash out. Gentle to moderate winds dominating the western basin will strengthen tonight through Wed morning. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid- week. A weak front may reach the NW Gulf mid- week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.

Caribbean Sea

With a weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the Caribbean and a 1009 mb Colombian Low, trades are only gentle to moderate across most of the Caribbean this afternoon, except for localized areas of fresh winds across the Gulf of Honduras and just north of the A-B-C Islands. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin except 4 to 5 central portions. Widely scattered showers are seen across the NE and N-central portions, while scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are across the nearshore waters of NW Colombia, in association with the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds nightly starting Tue night. Winds will pulse to fresh nightly near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 19N60W to 26N62W, supported by a collocated upper level trough. A 1030 mb high center is located across the central Atlantic near 36N51W and drapes across this surface trough to the SW and SE. The pressure gradient between these two features is producing a zone of fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds from 21N to 31N between 50W-62W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N-30N between 47W-61W. A stationary front is located from the NE Florida coast north- northeastward to 31N80W with scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 76W-79W. Except as noted above, winds across the forecast waters are gentle to moderate with seas 4-7 ft in mixed wind waves and N swell. To the E of 50W moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail to 25W. Seas in this area are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will gradually shift westward through the early part of the week as the trough drifts westward. A stationary front along the southeastern U.S. Coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front through the middle of the week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western waters in the early part of the week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling