Go to the WJXT homepage

Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure system south of the Azores and lower pressure over NW Africa will continue to support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough to very rough seas in the Agadir region through at least 02/0900 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The broad disturbance is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 04N to 18N and east of 40W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of this week. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic throughout the week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms near the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is present south of 15N and west of 78W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues to 10N27W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to 10N46W and then from 10N52W to 11N61W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida to south Texas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the front. The strongest convection is noted in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Similar convection is evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and low pressure over southern Florida result in moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. However, mariners navigating near strong storms can expect gusty winds and higher seas.

For the forecast, the front will remain stationary while it gradually dissipates through Tue. The front will be a focus for showers and thunderstorms for the north-central and southeast Gulf into mid-week. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas through Sat night.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front across of southern Florida and divergence aloft continue to support scattered showers across Cuba and the nearshore waters in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is seen in Hispaniola and moving into the Gulf of Gonave. Generally drier conditions are seen in the rest of the basin.

The subtropical ridge north of the islands is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in the north-central, eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving into eastern Honduras and Nicaragua will move west of the basin through early Tue. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure building behind the tropical wave and in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. In addition, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in the Agadir region issued by Meteo-France.

A stationary front extends from near 31N72W to a 1009 mb low pres just off Port Saint Lucie, Florida. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorm are evident on satellite imagery over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 70W. The pressure gradient between the ridge over the eastern United States and the aforementioned low pressure sustain fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas north of the front and west of 77W.

Farther east, a surface trough from 24N to 29N and along 51W continues to generate scattered showers near the trough axis. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to strong NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 50W. Moderate to rough seas are occurring in these waters. The strongest winds and highest seas are found east of 20W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will persist through Thu. Expect moderate to fresh NE winds with moderate seas north of the front tonight through Tue morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary will affect the Florida seaboard, and the northern and central Bahamas through Fri. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the pattern from the central Atlantic through the Bahamas, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and mostly moderate seas.

Posted 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado