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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N40W and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 22W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure centered over the W Atlantic dominates the Gulf, with moderate to fresh E to NE winds prevailing S of 24N. Winds N of 24N are moderate or weaker. Seas of 1-4 ft prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic westward over the eastern and central Gulf. The high pressure will shift southeastward through Sun as a mostly dry cold front moves across the northern Gulf waters. Fresh to locally strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico Sun night into Mon afternoon before becoming mostly fresh south to southwest winds across the central and western Gulf through late Mon night as another weak cold front moves off the Texas coast. The front will continue to weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the central Gulf by Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast late Tue night, and reach from the near the western Florida panhandle to the west-central Gulf by late Wed. Fresh northeast winds are expected behind this front. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through much of this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, where the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the region. High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters near northwest Colombia. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N65W and continues SW to near 26N73W. No significant convection is noted along the frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 32N73W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of the area W of 55W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail in this region. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 19N57W. An upper level trough also has its axis roughly along 55W. The interactions between these features as well as convergent surface winds is leading to a large area of scattered moderate convection N of 20N between 44W and 53W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of the Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 24N and E of 50W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds. Mainly moderate to fresh trades with moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh northeast winds are expected over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south- central Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh southwest to west winds will occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds expanding farther east into the central Atlantic through Sun morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east coast of the United States. The cold front is forecast to move southeastward along the Florida Peninsula and into the northwestern waters this weekend into early next week, with moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds off the coast of the eastern U.S.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams