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Special Feature

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1014 mb low pressure near 23N55W will support gale-force winds east of 55W tonight. As the low moves east, strong gale force winds and gusts to storm force could be possible from 27N to 29N and east of 57W late tonight through Mon. Gale winds will likely last through Mon night, then diminish to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 05S38W to the coast of NE Brazil. Strong convection is exiting the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia, extending west to 12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 03N between 15W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 22N91W. A 1010 mb low centered near 20N93W extends a warm front northeastward to 22N91W, and a cold front southward to 18N93W. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the cold front offshore of west- central and southwestern Florida. Fresh to strong north to northwest winds are occurring to the north and west of these fronts, extending from the north-central to southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail ahead of the fronts in the southeastern basin. Locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted near the strongest winds behind the front, otherwise, seas of 3 to 7 ft prevail through much of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from the Big Bend of Florida to the south-central Gulf of America will continue to move southeast and move E of the Gulf late tonight. Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will prevail this evening across the eastern Gulf waters, then fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will develop across the central and eastern Gulf tonight though Mon late night. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the high pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front is slated to enter the Gulf region by mid-week.

Caribbean Sea

A developing trough northeast of the Leeward Islands is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of the area, resulting in gentle breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas across the eastern Caribbean. Moderate east winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong trade winds and seas to 6 ft off Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas persist over most of the northwest Caribbean, mainly west of 83W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW Caribbean will diminish this evening as the cold front currently moving across the Gulf of America reaches the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the NW Carribbean from Mon through mid week. In addition, northeast fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across southern Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Haiti through the same period due to a developing low pressure north of the area. Seas within these winds will range between 4 to 8 ft. High pressure over the central north Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia throughout the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A 1014 mb low centered near 23N55W extends a trough to the northeast to 27N52W, and southwestward to 18N64W. A mid to upper level short wave trough is interacting with this surface feature to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 23N between 49W and 52W. The pressure gradient between the trough and 1034 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N45W is supporting fresh to strong east winds and 8 to 10 ft seas from 23N to 31N between 35W and 70W. Farther west, fresh to strong southwest winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are active off eastern Florida, mainly north of 27N and west of 75W, ahead of a cold front slowly moving from the Gulf through Florida. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring off the east coast of Florida in association with this front. Farther east over the eastern Atlantic, a cold front is approaching the Canary Islands, followed by moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 14 ft seas in NW swell, east of 35W. Moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin south of 31N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the 1014 mb low pressure near 23N55W will support gale-force winds east of 55W tonight. As the low moves east, strong gale force winds and gusts to storm force could be possible from 27N to 29N and east of 57W late tonight through Mon. Gale winds will likely last through Mon night, then diminish to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast tonight preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By mid week a low pressure system may develop along this front supporting a large area of near-gale to gale force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams