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Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W, S of 15N reaching Suriname. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the wave axis from 15N southward between 52W and 60W. The wave is enhancing convection over Suriname and French Guiana.

A tropical wave is moving westward at about 15 kt across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 79W, and extends from 17N79W to central Panama. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 14N17W and and continues southwestward to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 04.5N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed along both of these features from 02N to 10N between 18W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is analyzed from 29N91W to 26N95W to 20.5N97W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough S of 24N and also N of 28N. Scattered showers are occurring in the central and W Gulf between 24N and 28N. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong E to NE winds occurring in the SW Gulf and the Bay of Campeche, generally S of 24N and W of 87W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are occurring across portions of the W Gulf between the surface trough and 90W and N of 25N, as well as through the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds are observed elsewhere across the basin. Seas are analyzed at 3-6 ft W of 87W, and 1-3 ft E of 87W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each evening through Fri north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas will occur across the central and western Gulf of America, while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas will prevail in the eastern basin, as high pressure persists over the northeastern Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will maintain hazy conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move across the northern and central portions of the basin Fri night into Sat before stalling. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds will follow the front across the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge, and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds over the south-central Caribbean, with winds near gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by recent scatterometer data. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are also occurring through the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south- central Caribbean per altimeter data, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere S of 18N. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the far NW Caribbean. Also, an upper level low is aiding the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of the central and E Caribbean. Much of this activity is focused from Hispaniola southward to Colombia and Venezuela.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will occur across the southwestern through central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Venezuela, through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia late tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras into this weekend. Looking ahead, a tropical wave analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles will track across the eastern and central Caribbean through this weekend, producing numerous thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas surrounding the wave.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles.

High pressure of 1028 mb located near 37N24W dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge extending southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. Farther E, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands. Fresh to strong N winds are also noted from 16N to 24N between 17W and 23W. Locally rough seas are within the latter winds. Satellite imagery also shows scattered showers occurring in a region from 19N to 23N between 53W and 70W, associated with an upper level low over the Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse south of 25N through Fri as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected to develop offshore of Florida on Fri, with winds strengthening and expanding eastward to 70W by late Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the eastern United States. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. The cold front is slated to move offshore into the Atlantic Fri night into Sat, with winds turning to the W and weakening behind the front. Looking ahead, the front will dissipate this weekend, and high pressure will build over the western Atlantic.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams