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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico. Near-gale to gale force northerly winds behind this front near Veracruz, Mexico will gradually decrease to between fresh and strong after midnight tonight. Seas at 10 to 12 ft will also subside and become 7 to 9 ft by Tue afternoon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. An ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N to 03N between 32W and 38W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 50 nm south of the front. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle N to NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate N to NE swell are noted across the Florida Straits and near the Texas coast. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to strong N to NE winds outside the Gale Warning area behind the front will diminish to between moderate and fresh over the southeastern and south-central Gulf on Tue, with light to gentle winds expected over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas will also subside on Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead, weak high pressure will build over the basin later this week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. A 1021 mb high at the central Atlantic near 24N45W sustains a fair trade- wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas stay at the northwestern basin and near Costa Rica and Panama, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern basin through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. Winds may pulse to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas may develop near and to the west of these winds. A tightening pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the northwestern basin and low pressure in the south-central basin will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central basin beginning on Wed and into the upcoming weekend. Winds may approach near gale-force offshore of Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent E swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas slightly subside. New mixed N and E swell is expected to bring rough seas over these same waters starting late Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening cold front runs southwestward from a 1006 mb low south of Bermuda across 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident near and up 40 nm south of the boundary. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 32W and 38W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are seen near and behind both cold fronts, north of 27N between 52W and the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high near 24N45W is dominating the Atlantic north of 23N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast with gentle to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found.

For the forecast west of 35W, the cold front will continue eastward through late Tue night, preceded by fresh to strong SW winds north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell east of 73W will continue to expand toward the central Atlantic into early Tue as very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N and east of 64W by Tue morning. A second and stronger cold front extending from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida will quickly shift eastward through Tue night overtaking the first front. The front will be followed by fresh to strong NW winds, north of about 26N and west of 68W into late tonight. A new set of N swell will support rough seas over the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before merging with the aforementioned rough seas in the central Atlantic on Tue. Winds will diminish from west to east through Tue night, with rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore northern FLorida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off the east coast of the U.S.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan