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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 05N to 10N between 32W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 15N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from south of Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed at the central Caribbean Sea and near the Venezuela- Colombia border.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 14N17W to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues westward from that point to 09N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N37W to 09N47W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted S of 10N between 18W-26W, and along the ITCZ between 37W-47W.

Gulf Of America

A peripheral rainband associated with the now T.S. Erick at the coast of Oaxaca State, Mexico is causing numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms off Veracruz, Mexico in the western Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is coupling with divergent upper-level flow to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche and west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs westward from northern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas dominate the southwestern and west-cental Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted at the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SSE winds with moderate seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the outermost rainbands from Tropical Storm Erick over southwest Mexico will affect the SW Gulf through early Fri. Gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and locally higher seas are expected in the strongest convection. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin.

A 1023 mb Bermuda High centered near 28N66W continues to provide a robust trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent SE winds are creating isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Strong to near-gale easterly winds and rough seas are occurring at the south-central basin. Moderate to strong E winds and moderate seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except light to gentle winds with slight seas near Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge over the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin.

Convergent SW winds to the south of a stationary front near 33W are producing scattered moderate convection north of 30N between 34W and 40W. A pronounced subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1024 mb high near 28N34W to a Bermuda near 28N66W. These features are dominating the Atlantic waters north of 20N and between 25W and 75W with light to gentle winds and moderate seas. To the south from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are evident. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail for the remaining Atlantic waters west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will prevail along 28N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the forecast period. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

Posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era