Ongoing missile strikes in the Middle East could soon mean rising costs at the gas pump — right here in Jacksonville.
The attacks on Saturday raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran, and Iran is threatening to block a key oil route that carries a massive share of the world’s supply.
Experts say oil prices are already climbing, and that means gas prices could be going up this week in Jacksonville.
“A lot of it is not knowing what’s going to happen, how Iran is going to retaliate, how badly trade is going to be affected. Businesses want to avoid the entire area. We are also reliant on a lot of imports from Israel, in terms of technology, products, pharmaceuticals. Are those going to be affected? Are those supplies going to affect our chain, supply chain? So we will know more within a week or two,” Economist Brad Hirschbein said.
One of the biggest concerns is Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but critical shipping lane that handles about 20% of the world’s oil.
Closing off the waterway would be technically difficult, but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts.
Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said disrupting traffic through the strait would be “economic suicide” and would elicit a U.S. response.
“I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said.
The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets.
The price of oil initially jumped more than 2% but later fell back, losing about 0.4%. On Friday, crude oil prices hit nearly $75 a barrel, the highest since January. Over the weekend, prices fluctuated between $74 and $77.
Just last month, oil was sitting at around $60 a barrel, but rising oil prices impact more than just fuel costs.
Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst who has covered oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and he wouldn’t be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons.
“If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,” said Lipow.
That would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways, he said.
“It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.”
Experts recommend these tips to help you save:
- Combine errands to reduce driving
- Avoid speeding and aggressive acceleration
- Remove excess weight from your vehicle
- Pay with cash — some gas stations charge more for credit
Rising prices may also push federal officials to raise interest rates. That means:
- Higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers
- Possible job cuts—especially in fast-growing tech
- Americans spending less — and spending drives over 70% of the U.S. economy
Security concerns
In Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, the impact of the ongoing conflict goes beyond just prices and spending.
With major military bases like NAS Jacksonville, Naval Station Mayport, and Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, what happens overseas hits closer to home.
These hubs are vital to U.S. defense and play a key role in monitoring and responding to global conflicts, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Any disruption overseas — like a threat to the Hormuz route — heightens alert levels here, and local families could feel the impact with more deployments or elevated activity on base.
NAS Jacksonville and Naval Station Mayport were built before World War II to boost the economy and strengthen the military. They trained thousands of sailors and helped defend the coast.
Today, they remain key to U.S. operations — along with Kings Bay, home to a critical submarine fleet for nuclear deterrence.
