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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave was added to the surface analysis near 20W from 04N to 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 13N between 16W and 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N between 42W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 62W and 68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Western Sahara near 23N15W and dives southward to a 1009 mb low pres near 15N21W and then continues southwestward to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 14N to 17N between 55W and 60W.

Gulf Of America

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper- level trough north of the area is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, mainly along the coast, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next week as an upper-level trough drops southward toward the Gulf states as a very moist and unstable airmass prevails over region. In addition, a cold front will move across the southern U.S. Sat night through Sun night, with fresh southwest winds developing ahead of it over the northern portion of the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas across much of the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, very rough seas offshore of Colombia left behind the recent gale winds will slowly subside through Sat. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to strong trades will begin to diminish in coverage beginning and through the weekend. Fresh trades elsewhere south S of about 18N will also diminish in coverage through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near 66W, is accompanied increasing showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds. The wave will quickly move through the rest of the eastern Caribbean tonight and Sun morning, and across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active north of 24N and west of 65W, along a deep layer trough reaching from 31N75W to South Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are evident within 120 nm east of this feature, with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, the remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 32N52W. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist along 28N into next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 65W through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen