The Atlantic remains unusually quiet for mid-September, but the National Hurricane Center is watching one disturbance over the central subtropical Atlantic.
Right now, it is a trough of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located well out over the open water east-southeast of Bermuda.
Development is not expected to be quick, but conditions could become a little more favorable later this week as the system moves generally west-northwest.
The NHC gives it a medium chance, around 40%, of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.
For now, there is no threat to Florida, the Gulf, or the First Coast.
Strong upper-level winds have been one of the main reasons this system has struggled to organize, and that has been the story for much of the Atlantic season so far.
A strengthening El Niño pattern has helped increase wind shear across parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean, making it harder for storms to stack vertically and strengthen.
This season has been running well below normal.
Even with the quiet pattern, hurricane season is far from over.
September and October can still produce development close to home, especially in the western Caribbean, Gulf, and near the Southeast coast.
We will continue to watch the Atlantic closely, but as of now, there are no tropical threats to Jacksonville or Northeast Florida.
