The Atlantic basin is showing more activity, with the National Hurricane Center monitoring three separate disturbances. While none poses an immediate threat to Florida, two systems in the central tropical Atlantic is increasingly likely to become a tropical depression.
The primary area to watch is a tropical wave located roughly 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands as of the 2 a.m. Wednesday advisory. Its showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized, and environmental conditions are expected to support additional development. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 70% chance of formation within 48 hours and an 80% chance over seven days. A tropical depression will likely form within the next couple of days as the disturbance moves west to west-northwest across the central Atlantic.
This potential system remains thousands of miles from the United States, and it is much too early to determine whether it will eventually threaten any land areas. Its long-range track will depend heavily on the strength and position of high pressure over the Atlantic, along with any weaknesses capable of turning the system farther north. For now, there is no immediate threat to Florida, but this is the system we will watch most closely over the coming days.
Farther north, Disturbance #2 is located about 1,000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Although satellite wind data indicate the broad low has produced gale-force winds, its circulation remains elongated and its thunderstorms have recently become less organized. A brief tropical storm could still form as it moves quickly east to east-northeast, but it should reach cooler water by Thursday, ending its opportunity for development. Formation odds remain at 50% through both 48 hours and seven days. Because this system is moving away over the open Atlantic, it poses no threat to Florida or the southeastern United States.
A third tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of western Africa. Its showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but conditions could allow some gradual development as it travels west to west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation odds stand at 10% within 48 hours and 20% over seven days. This system is also a very long way from the United States and will require several days of monitoring.
One important reminder: the percentages displayed by the National Hurricane Center represent the chance that a tropical depression or storm will form—not the likelihood of a hurricane, landfall or impacts at a particular location. Right now, there is no reason for alarm in Florida, but we are entering the portion of hurricane season when tropical activity typically increases, so checking the forecast regularly is always a good idea