The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on three areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, although only one currently has a notable chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.
Disturbance 1: 10% Chance of Development
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the central tropical Atlantic, roughly halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
The area of disturbed weather could gradually become better organized through midweek as it moves quickly westward.
However, conditions are expected to become less favorable later this week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Development chances:
- Next 48 hours: 10%
- Next 7 days: 10%
Disturbance 2: 60% Chance of Development
This is the area the National Hurricane Center is watching most closely.
A small area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is expected to move slowly westward, where it could merge with another tropical wave currently moving off the west coast of Africa.
Conditions will become more favorable for development by midweek. A tropical depression could form later this week as the system heads west to west-northwest across the central Atlantic.
Development chances:
- Next 48 hours: 20%
- Next 7 days: 60%
For now, there is no named storm associated with this system, but it has the highest development potential of the three areas being monitored. The next name on the list is Cristobal.
Disturbance 3: 10% Chance of Development
A trough of low pressure several hundred miles northwest of Bermuda is also producing showers and thunderstorms.
Some development is possible over the next couple of days as the system races eastward, staying well north of Bermuda.
The window for development will be short. The system will reach cooler waters later this week, which will limit any further development.
Development chances:
- Next 48 hours: 10%
- Next 7 days: 10%
What factors could limit intensification? Wind shear is a big one and this is a measure of the change in wind speed with height.
The higher the wind shear, the more difficult it is for a storm to develop. In the example above for a hurricane, the system weakens due to the center being exposed. The same can be said for a tropical disturbance that has yet to have a defined core.
Wind shear is high for a large part of the Atlantic basin which will help to prevent significant development. Regardless, we will continue to monitor and will let you know if anything changes.