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Severe drought is expanding across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Will it change anytime soon?

The latest drought monitor.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The latest drought report was not good news for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.

The extreme and exceptional drought categories have expanded in coverage due to a lack of rainfall across our area.

The worst of the drought is generally west of the St. Johns River, where an onshore flow last month suppressed any significant rainfall in those areas. Along the coast, the drought is far less due to an abundance of rainfall last month associated with several Nor’easters.

Year to date rainfall deficit.

The rainfall deficit over the past year is significant in some spots.

Jacksonville International is closing in on a 10″ rainfall deficit, while areas to the west area approaching, if not exceeding 15″.

In terms of this month, Jacksonville International has had no rainfall. The airport averages around 2″ for the month and is typically our driest month of the year.

Driest Novembers on record at the Jacksonville International Airport.

Should we end the month at the airport with no additional rainfall, it would be the driest November on record since records have been kept at the site since 1938.

You have to go back to 1970, where a trace of rain was recorded, and only two hundredths of an inch of rain was recorded in 2016. Since 2000, the airport has recorded a tenth of an inch or less of rain one other time (2016).

Will this change anytime soon?

A front could bring a few spotty showers on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, it’s not looking promising as we head through the rest of the month.

A cold front will bring our area a small chance for a few showers on Wednesday. Certainly not enough to put a dent in the drought.

Three month rainfall outlook.

Looking ahead from December through February, the rainfall forecast is not promising. Our area is forecast to have well below normal rainfall during this period. This would only enhance the already existing drought and rainfall deficits.


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