JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Breathe easy, Earthlings! That big scary asteroid that had some people worried? Turns out, it will just pass by with no plans to crash our planet’s party.
NASA has given the all-clear on asteroid 2024 YR4, which briefly had astronomers raising their eyebrows after initial data suggested it had a 3.1% chance of smacking into Earth in 2032. But after collecting more observations, scientists have crunched the numbers again, and the odds have plummeted to nearly zero. Crisis averted.
Initially, when skywatchers spotted 2024 YR4 in December, the numbers were a little more nerve-wracking. With a potential impact zone covering major cities like Mumbai and Lagos, the rock’s odds of making an uninvited visit were higher than any asteroid NASA had ever tracked of its size—between 130 and 300 feet wide, big enough to level a city.
But as more data rolled in, astronomers refined their calculations. By last week, what once looked like a cosmic game of chicken started looking more like a false alarm. The odds dropped from 3.1% to 1.5%, then 0.3%, and by Monday, NASA put the final nail in the doomsday coffin: a near-impossible 0.004% chance of impact.
And while Earth is out of harm’s way, the moon might not be so lucky. NASA says there’s a tiny 1.7% chance that 2024 YR4 could hit it instead.
For now, astronomers will keep an eye on the asteroid as it zips out of view by April, not to be seen again until 2028.