JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Jaguars are moving on from the biggest collapse in franchise history, hopeful of getting their sinking season back on track with a massive home game on deck Sunday.
The Jaguars (5-4) host the Chargers (7-3) in a game that already feels like must-win territory for head coach Liam Coen, especially after their most recent collapse.
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Jacksonville lost for the third time in four games, giving up 26 points in the fourth quarter to the Texans in a 36-29 loss.
“We can’t change anything about the outcome of yesterday. It sucks, it’s brutal. But this is the league, this is the NFL,” Coen said. “The real adversity, the real response to gut wrenching, tough losses like this. Everything is in front of us. We have every opportunity to go win this week. That’s all that matters. We’ve got to win this week.”
Jacksonville’s fast start feels like an eternity ago.
And the implosion against Houston — the Jaguars had never lost a game when leading by three possessions in the second half — has the makings of a loss that could send the season into a freefall.
“Turn the page, flip the script whether you like or not, we have another game coming up here in six days, so lingering about what happened this last game isn’t going to do anything for the Chargers,” said defensive tackle Arik Armstead. “You learn from your mistakes, you get things cleaned up and then you move on. We’re still in a very good position with our season ahead of us, and you turn the page and get back to work.”
How have things gone so poorly?
The Jaguars are a deeply flawed team whose issues in the offseason (shaky offensive line, weak defensive line, erratic offense) have manifested themselves in a big way. The new regime was never going to be able to fix all the issues immediately, but a fast start helped to conceal them.
But as injuries mounted and the schedule toughened up, those cracks in the foundation started to show up more frequently.
The defensive front has produced just 12 sacks, tied for last in the NFL with the Ravens and 49ers. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, the team’s top pass rushers, have combined for just four sacks. The sack Antonio Johnson had against Houston was just because he was the closest defender to Davis Mills when he ran out of bounds.
The offensive line has struggled with injuries and inconsistencies. The receiving corps has struggled with both health and catching passes. The Jaguars have been penalized 83 times and lead the league in both flags and dropped passes (30).
When Jacksonville was forcing takeaways at a breakneck pace, it could mask some of those issues.
The injuries
Jacksonville has been walloped by injuries this year. Tight end Brenton Strange has been on injured reserve, but Coen said the team would likely open his 21-day window to return soon. Rookie first-round pick Travis Hunter has juggled offense and defense this year, but went on injured reserve late last month. He’ll be out at least two more games. Receiver Brian Thomas Jr., mired in an awful second season, missed the Texans game with an ankle injury. Disappointing free agent receiver Dyami Brown has been in and out of games banged up.
The defense missed linebacker Devin Lloyd for a couple games. Safety Eric Murray went on injured reserve (neck) and the offensive line has needed to get creative with a revolving door of injuries. Left guard Ezra Cleveland is one of the top-graded at his position in the NFL, and his absence against Houston was significant. The Texans dominated the left side of Jacksonville’s line.
The Jaguars had a solid NFL roster at full strength, but they have been decimated by injuries and have little depth at all to absorb those injuries.
The Trevor issue
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was billed as a generational prospect coming into the NFL. His development has been anything but linear. In Year 5 and playing under his third different head coach, Lawrence was expected to take a major step forward under Coen.
That hasn’t quite happened, and Lawrence’s issues remain one of the most divisive in the league. Many have labeled Lawrence a bust, and that the Jaguars can’t win with him under center.
But Jacksonville has won with Lawrence, the peak coming over the final part of 2022 and the first 11 games of 2023. Lawrence played at an elite level in that stretch, going 15-5 and winning a playoff game.
He hasn’t been able to get anywhere close to that since.
He’s not totally to blame for the offensive issues.
Lawrence is completing a career-worst 59.5% of his passes. That total is skewed quite a bit by poor performance by his pass catchers, who have dropped an NFL-high 30 passes.
He’s also getting sacked at an unsustainable pace. Lawrence has been sacked 26 times in nine games and will almost certainly be dropped more this year than any season in his career. Lawrence was sacked 35 times in 2023.
Whether Lawrence is ultimately the right guy or not for the Jaguars, he’s cemented in Jacksonville for the immediate future.
The five-year, $275 million extension that Lawrence signed last year doesn’t begin until 2026. To move on from Lawrence as many talking heads have suggested is financially impossible right now. Lawrence’s dead cap this year would be $133.5 million, according to Spotrac. That number drops to $116.5 million in 2026 and $65 million in 2027.
Dead cap money is a charge against a team’s salary cap for a player who isn’t on the roster anymore. When teams sign players and give them a signing bonus, they’re allowed to prorate that bonus across a number of years. If that player is released before the end of the contract, the remainder of the prorated signing bonus accelerates into the current cap year.
The highest dead cap number in NFL history is $85 million that Denver absorbed in cutting Russell Wilson. The Broncos spread that out over two years, but $49.6 million of that is against their cap this season.