JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Let’s talk about that Big Beautiful Bill the House passed, which is now in the Senate’s hands. Political analysts say if you look at the bill closely, yes, it delivers on President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda and cuts taxes.
But they question at what cost.
The answer is that the cost will be to the tune of lost health care for 8.6 million Americans through Medicaid or Obamacare subsidies.
It raises a question that people are asking: Didn’t the Republicans wonder if those cuts would make life difficult for people who are aging, unemployed, working poor or disabled?
Not to mention that it would also add so much red ink to the federal ledger that it could trigger massive Medicare cuts. And it would add trillions to the national debt.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott is one of four conservative members of the Senate who worry about getting blamed for the economic consequences of the budget reconciliation bill, if it passes.
Scott put it this way: “I want to get a deal done; I support the president’s agenda. I support the border, I support the military, I support extending the Trump tax cuts — but we have to live in reality. We got a fiscal crisis.”
What Scott’s worried about is the bond market.
“You saw the Japanese bond market is in trouble. You saw the American bond market is in trouble. Inflation is not coming down; interest is not coming down. That means we’ve got to balance the budget,” Scott said.
He and others, as well as economists, say the markets are looking for more fiscal discipline because yearly deficits of nearly $2 trillion are not sustainable.
Sen. Rand Paul said he won’t vote for the House bill because of its provision to raise the debt ceiling, which would only make matters worse.
“I think the cuts currently in the bill are wimpy and anemic, but I still would support the bill, even with wimpy and anemic cuts, if they weren’t going to explode the debt,” Paul said in an interview with “Fox News Sunday.”
Others in the Senate see what’s on the table as a joke.
What remains to be seen is whether the Senate will stall it or change it and use a budgeting tactic called reconciliation to send it back to the House. Keep in mind, it was passed by only one vote among a divided Republican conference.
House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasizes the need to pass the bill and have Trump sign it by Independence Day.
His reasoning: “Because we’ve got to get relief to the American people, and that we also need to, for political purposes, show give a lot of time, enough time for everyone to see that this package actually is what we say. It’s going to help the country, it’s going to help the economy.”
That’s counter to what others see as a debt bomb. It’s what analysts at The Guardian called “trickle-up economics sold as working‑class salvation.” And “a shiny populist package hiding a brutal class agenda.”
And if you look closely at the 1,116-page bill, there are also things that raise alarms that have nothing to do with the budget or safety net programs or even debt.
There’s something to do with a federal rule for civil court procedures requiring anyone seeking an injunction or temporary restraining order to block an action by the Trump administration to post a financial bond. So, if you challenge Trump, you’ll have to pay.
In an article in USA Today, Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the University of California, Berkeley School of Law, called that “unprecedented.”
“The greatest impact will be in preventing enforcement of all existing temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions if a bond has not been posted,” Chemerinsky said.
And there’s more to think about. Look at the polarizing bill and compare it with Project 2025. That’s the initiative coordinated by the Heritage Foundation with a goal of reshaping the federal government.
Go back to his presidential campaign, and Trump said he knew nothing about Project 2025. Even so, several of the executive orders he signed right after becoming president again fit right in with Project 2025.
Coincidence? You decide!
On the issue of health care, both Trump’s bill and Project 2025 look to change how Americans access public health care options. We already talked about the target on Medicaid.
When it comes to tax cuts, you have the Trump plan, which focuses on individual and business tax cuts. Look at Project 2025. It proposes substantial tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations.
Both Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and Project 2025 align in their efforts to restrict access to abortion services.
When it comes to student loans, Trump’s proposal includes a tax on university endowments, while Project 2025 focuses on denying student loans based on state policies. Trump’s plan also proposes an overhaul of repayment options.
Is it an illusion? Do Trump’s big bill and Project 2025 align on those issues? It’s there in black and white for you to decide.
Political analyst Daniel Cronrath joins me for this week’s episode of Politics & Power. Watch at 7 p.m. or 9 p.m. Tuesday on News4JAX+ or catch it any time on demand on News4JAX+, News4JAX.com or our YouTube Channel.